PC rebels, Liberal opposition seem unsure how to push Higgs on Policy 713
Ministers who broke ranks won’t force the issue, Holt uncertain if non-confidence vote would have any effect
The uprising against Premier Blaine Higgs last week over Policy 713 was a very New Brunswick rebellion.
There was that remarkable expression of "extreme disappointment" by eight Progressive Conservative MLAs — including six cabinet ministers — who refused to take their seats Thursday morning.
But there was no firm, sustained pressure to force the premier to back down or quit.
The opposition Liberals, meanwhile, seemed unsure how to leverage the turmoil to inflict maximum damage on Higgs or compel him to reverse course.
It's probably a symptom of decades of top-down, leader-driven, party-line governance that elected members of the legislature are so uncertain of the powers they have and the best way to use them.
"Obviously, it was certainly breaking the conventions of the British parliamentary system," Higgs said last week in Question Period of the statement by six ministers and two backbench MLAs.
The premier was right: normally, ministers who disagree with a government policy resign.
But the six ministers breaking ranks last week identified themselves as members of caucus — trying to distinguish between their cabinet jobs and their roles as ordinary MLAs, who have more leeway to disagree.
That's not a distinction our British cabinet system of government normally allows.
There's no rulebook for this in Canada, but the U.K. government has a manual for how cabinet works — and it says decisions are "binding on all members of government" and even if ministers disagree privately, they must maintain "a united front" publicly.
And, it says, they should quit or be removed, "when they are not able to continue to accept collective responsibility" — precisely where the six ministers found themselves Thursday.
Rebellion lasted only 2 hours
Not only did the six not quit, their no-show lasted just two hours. After lunch, they were back in the legislature voting for government legislation.
That indicated that they weren't willing to resign or be fired over Policy 713.
So what other options do they have?
Backbench PC MLA Andrea Anderson-Mason, who signed the statement, went on to slam the government's Education Act during second-reading debate last Friday.
It's easier for Anderson-Mason to do that because she's not a minister. Those in cabinet would have a harder time following suit because of the same obligations to show solidarity.
The rebels could vote in favour of a Liberal motion calling on the government to revert back to the original Policy 713.
That motion is not binding, though, so even if the motion passed, it would have no effect.
They could also make mischief by voting against their own government's motion to limit debate time on nine bills so that the house can adjourn as scheduled this Friday.
Forcing the session to drag on into next week would be an annoyance, but would do nothing to change Policy 713.
Higgs actually gave the rebels some latitude on both of those motions when he said last week he would not declare them confidence measures.
If they were confidence votes, Higgs would have to call an election if he lost either vote.
By declaring they're not, Higgs both takes pressure off himself and gives the PC rebels more leeway to vote against him without any risk of consequences.
If Higgs were to somehow lose a confidence vote, former education minister Dominic Cardy has argued that Lt.-Gov. Brenda Murphy could reject an election call and offer another PC MLA the chance to form a government and win the confidence of the house.
But that rarely happens in Canada. Governing parties that select new leaders in the middle of a mandate do so through their party's rules on leadership races and reviews, not through a legislative vote.
Holt won't commit to Policy 713 motion this week
The Liberals, meanwhile, have their own challenges figuring out the conventions and precedents they might use to paint Higgs into a corner.
Leader Susan Holt declared last Friday that her party is "trying to use every tool in our toolkit to get this policy into the legislature."
But Holt said her party would not itself introduce a non-confidence motion in the hopes of getting the PC rebels to support it.
"It's not up to us to make the government fall," she said, claiming — incorrectly — that a non-confidence motion introduced by the opposition would not be binding.
In fact, an opposition motion of no confidence is what led to the defeat of the Joe Clark government in 1979.
More recently in New Brunswick, the Gallant government was defeated in 2018 after the opposition, led by Higgs, inserted a non-confidence amendment into a throne speech motion.
"Lots to figure out here," Holt said, when that bit of history was pointed out on Friday.
The Liberal leader also would not commit to even bringing her party's Policy 713 motion up for a vote this week.
The opposition parties have limited time to set the agenda on Thursday afternoons, and Holt said her party might bring one of its other bills or motions to the floor instead.
"It remains to be seen what happens between now and then," she said.
8 could choose to become independent
There is one procedural move that, if the eight PC rebels used it, would likely bring things to a head.
If the Tories quit their party caucus to sit as independents, they'd deprive Higgs of the votes to pass several bills that have yet to win final approval.
They'd be in a position to make demands.
But if they were that bold, they would probably have made that move already.
And once the house adjourns for the summer, that opportunity is gone until October.
The PC diffidence and Holt's hesitations suggest it could be an inconclusive week.
No one appears able or willing to twist the knife — if they even know where to find one.
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