PCs gear up for election with wave of candidate nominations

After backing away from a possible early election call last fall, New Brunswick's governing Progressive Conservatives are accelerating their preparations for a 2024 campaign.

The party has chosen two candidates since New Year's Day and has scheduled eight more nominating conventions in January, all of them in redrawn ridings where PC incumbent MLAs are expected to run again.

They include cabinet ministers Ted Flemming, Kris Austin, Bill Hogan, Margaret Johnson, Mary Wilson and Tammy Scott-Wallace, backbencher Mike Dawson and Bill Oliver, Speaker of the legislature.

"I'm really looking forward for the opportunity to serve my same riding and an expanded new area," said Scott-Wallace, who will run in Sussex-Three Rivers.

"There was no hesitation that I would want my name to be on that ballot."

As speaker, Oliver normally doesn't take positions publicly on government decisions but he says he continues to work on projects for his Kings Centre riding.

"There's still a couple of things that I want to see to fruition and it seems like some of them are happening now, so I look forward to seeing them all to the end," he said. 

Hogan, Wilson and Johnson all confirmed by email that they are running, too. Incumbent MLAs Ryan Cullins and Richard Ames were nominated last weekend. 

Premier Blaine Higgs said last fall that he had been "very close" to a snap election call. The scheduled date is Oct. 21 of this year, though Higgs has not ruled out an early election in the spring.

Political scientist J.P. Lewis of the University of New Brunswick in Saint John says a faster pace of nominations gives the Tories flexibility for an early campaign.

"It gets them ready to go whenever."

The PC party is facing a surly electorate, according to polling by the Angus Reid Institute.

Among New Brunswick respondents, only 14 per cent said in a recent survey that the provincial government was doing a good or very good job on health care — the lowest approval of any province.

And only 11 per cent approved of the Higgs government's handling of inflation and the cost of living — tied for lowest with Ontario.

On the other hand, 54 per cent of respondents said Higgs was doing a good job on managing government spending, the highest rating of any provincial government in the country.

The poll was conducted from Nov. 24 to Dec. 1. The size of the New Brunswick sample would yield a margin of error of plus or minus six percentage points in 19 polls out of 20. 

The poll posed identical questions nationwide, so it did not ask about the Higgs government's handling of Policy 713 on sexual orientation and gender identity in provincial schools.

But the survey said New Brunswick's government averaged only 24-per-cent approval on its handling of education throughout 2023 — also the lowest rate in Canada. 

Scott-Wallace said she'll tell voters that the province is moving in the right direction despite some difficulties.

"I know there are challenges, of course. But I also believe we have made a lot of of progress," Scott-Wallace said.

"I am a Progressive Conservative and I'm very proud of that. We're having the right conversations in Fredericton that will serve my riding very well going forward." 

The Tories nominated their first candidate, Faytene Grasseschi in Hampton-Fundy-St. Martin's, on Dec. 19, so the 10 meetings held or scheduled this month represent an acceleration of their process.

The Liberals have nominated four election candidates so far. They plan to hold a policy convention in February to develop ideas for their campaign platform.

The PCs are gearing up at the same time a long-time member is questioning the party's direction under Higgs.

Moncton-area PC member Roger Léger, in a New Year's Day email to MLAs, accused Higgs of orchestrating a social-conservative takeover of the party.

"We have been deceived," he wrote in the email obtained by CBC News, which cited Grasseschi's nomination in December and the premier's reference to a "revolution" by new members of the party signing up.

In 2022, Léger spoke at a party meeting in favour of giving MLA Kris Austin the benefit of the doubt after he quit the People's Alliance to join the PCs. Some other francophone members were alarmed by Austin's position on language issues.

Léger now says Higgs lacks a mandate from grassroots members to transform the party into "a religious based social movement" and is calling on party MLAs to push back. 

"Where he is taking us is not who we are. Like me, many of you have been members for decades," wrote Léger.

"We can no longer remain silent. Silence is no longer golden; it is harmful." 

Léger turned down an interview request about his email. 

Lewis said another advantage of more candidate nominations for the PCs is it consolidates party unity by focusing attention on the campaign.

"One way to get a hold of that is to get the nomination process going," he said. "You have Higgs's team locked in."