New Brunswick marks another year of emissions reduction

New Brunswick recorded another year-over-year reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions in 2018, according to newly released data from the federal government.

And revisions to figures for previous years show that the province has been doing better than previously believed at meeting its targets under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

But the downward trend continues to be negated by the growth of emissions elsewhere in Canada.

Ottawa's National Inventory Report, released this week, pegs New Brunswick emissions at 13.2 million tonnes in 2018, the most recent year for which a tally is available.

That's down from 13.5 million tonnes in 2017.

It's also below the 14.1 million tonne official provincial goal, a target based on applying Canada's Paris objectives of a 30  per cent reduction from 2005 levels by 2030.

Previous annual reports showed higher emissions numbers from 2013 to 2017, but Louise Comeau of the Conservation Council of New Brunswick says "there are always adjustments because of uncertainties, estimates improvements, etc."

The Irving Oil refinery, the province's single largest emitter, registered a large drop in emissions, from 3.4 million tonnes in 2017 to 2.9 million tonnes in 2018.

Those numbers are listed for New Brunswick's petroleum refining sector and Irving is the province's only refiner. 

Meanwhile, emissions from electricity generation and manufacturing industries were up compared to 2017, while those from residential consumption and transportation were down.

Prince Edward Island and Saskatchewan were the only other provinces to record emissions reductions in 2018, according to the report. Figures for Newfoundland and Labrador were flat while all other provinces saw increases, as did Canada as a whole.

The report attributed the overall national increase to more fuel consumption by vehicles, more heating because of a colder winter, increased oil and gas production and more fossil fuel use by industry. 

Sadly, our reductions come from industrial dislocation.- Louise Comeau, Conservation Council of New Brunswick.

Comeau said those higher emissions elsewhere, particularly in Alberta, effectively wipe out New Brunswick's reductions.

"No matter what we do, you can't hide that problem," she said. "That's a lot of friends in the country, in other provinces, taking the hit for what's happening in oil and gas, and I think it's a legitimate conversation among premiers and the prime minister around what's fair." 

New Brunswick's lower emissions over the last decade or more have been attributed to several large forestry mills shutting down and the resulting reduced demand for electricity allowing NB Power to close some generating stations.

"Sadly, our reductions come from industrial dislocation, so we don't have a lot of experience generating reductions because we were pursuing greenhouse gas reductions, which I would hope we get to," Comeau said.

Maritime Iron projected increase

The positive provincial trend could be erased if the province approved a proposed iron processing plant next to the Belledune station.

Maritime Iron's environment assessment filing says the facility, to be linked to the NB Power plant, would create a net increase in emissions of 2.3 million tonnes.

New Brunswick has a more aggressive emissions-reduction goal of hitting 10.7 million tonnes, based on a 2015 agreement between eastern Canadian premiers and New England governors to reduce emissions to between 35 and 45  per cent of 1990 levels.

The previous Liberal government wrote that tougher goal into its Climate Change Act, and the current Progressive Conservative government has opted not to repeal it. But the PCs call the lower figure "aspirational."