Violent crime remains up in N.B., more officers not only solution, experts say

New stats show New Brunswick's violent crime rate remained at historic highs last year and contrary to political tough-on-crime rhetoric, some experts say hiring more police officers isn't a guaranteed solution.

The data comes from Statistics Canada, which revealed there were 1,736.82 incidents of violent crime per 100,000 people in New Brunswick last year, which was down by just 0.29 per cent from the year before.

It's a high not seen since the rate sank from similar levels in 1999, down to 1,168.42 per 100,000 people by 2014, before climbing back up in subsequent years.

New Brunswick's violent crime severity index — a metric used to measure the frequency and severity of crime — also rose, from 89.4 in 2021 to 96.54 last year, higher than it's been in the 24 years of available data.

"What governments are doing about violent crime and property crime is gradually increasing the level of policing … but gradual increases in policing are not likely to result in significant reductions in violent crime," said Irvin Waller, professor emeritus at the University of Ottawa, and author of Science and Secrets of Ending Violent Crime.

New Brunswick has responded to a trend in rising crime with a push to get more police officers on the streets.

Earlier this year, the province committed to spend $32.6 million in the upcoming budget to hire 80 more RCMP officers for rural areas and create new teams of provincial peace officers to tackle organized crime.

Public Safety Minister Kris Austin has leaned on stats showing rising crime to justify that spending and has referred to the data as warranting a new jail near Fredericton.

Waller says there's no denying the data suggests more violent crime is happening, however, he thinks social programs need to be boosted to prevent crime before it happens.

He said those include youth outreach programs and initiatives such as the Stop Now and Plan program, which targets children six to 12 years old who display early signs of anti-social or aggressive behaviour.

Waller said similar interventions have already shown success in Glasgow, Scotland, which drastically reduced its violent crime rate starting in the mid 2000s after setting up a sprawling network of agencies and community programs to tackle the root causes of violence.

"These programs are up there showing that they work," Waller said.

"They reduce violence, they're cost-effective, they ultimately reduce policing and incarceration costs. So we need to be doing these things."

CBC News has made requests to speak with Austin about the issue, however, he hasn't been made available, with department spokesperson Geoffrey Downey saying, in an email, that Austin will discuss the statistics once he's had a chance to have a closer look at them.

In a commentary piece published Saturday in the Telegraph-Journal newspaper, Austin said more police officers will mean quicker responses to calls and more success solving crime.

"People appreciate the work of the police in their community, but they want to see more law enforcement officers, especially in rural New Brunswick," Austin wrote.

Direct resources to rehabilitation, says prof

More police officers could help reduce crime, but they shouldn't be the only solution, says Mary Ann Campbell, director of the Centre for Criminal Justice Studies at the University of New Brunswick's Saint John campus.

Campbell said more resources should be directed at rehabilitating criminal offenders to reduce their chances of landing in trouble again.

She said that means coming up with programs that go beyond putting criminals behind bars.

"In fact, research shows that going to jail can elevate your risk of criminal activity once you're released, relative to diverting you into community-based sentences that include access to intervention."

Putting more resources into rehabilitation is probably "more of a return on your investment as a politician than simply expecting to build more prisons and put people in them," Campbell said.

Austin, in his newspaper commentary, said his government was also spending an additional $3.6 million in this year's budget to offer new programming for provincial inmates.