Is lifting COVID-19 restrictions in New Brunswick the right move? 2 experts disagree

As New Brunswick moves closer to lifting its COVID-19 restrictions on Monday, opinions on whether it's the right move remain far apart, even among some experts.

Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto, who has followed the province's situation, calls the decision premature. He suggests it's politically motivated and warns "we're going to pay a heavy price."

He believes cases will surge, including among children and health-care workers, and hospitalizations and deaths will rise. He also worries about the possible ravaging effects of COVID on New Brunswickers' bodies and relationships.

"I don't think this is good timing at all," Furness said.

"I think we're following a terrible example, which is to simply politically declare COVID is over. And I don't think anyone's consulted the virus on this."

In other jurisdictions where restrictions have been lifted, subvariants of Omicron have "come roaring back," he said. "And I think that's what we're going to be looking at."

Raywat Deonandan, an epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Ottawa, disagrees.

"Does it make sense to remove restrictions in New Brunswick? I think it probably does," he said.

New Brunswick's daily new PCR-confirmed case count has been around 400, compared to more than twice that a couple of months ago, noted Deonandan — although the province now reserves PCR tests for certain priority groups.

Death rates have also dropped "significantly," he said. (January marked the pandemic's deadliest month in New Brunswick, with 78 COVID-related deaths, a rate of 9.8 deaths per 100,000. As of March 10, the rate of deaths in the previous seven days stood at one.)

In addition, hospital capacity is "good," and the vaccination rates are "pretty high," with 87.3 per cent of eligible New Brunswickers double-dosed and 50.6 per cent boosted, as of Friday.

"You're not really at the same stress levels as other provinces," said Deonandan.

"However, [lifting restrictions] has to be done in the context of the pandemic as a whole because it's raging on in the rest of the country and the rest of the world."

New Brunswick can't "remain an island unaffected" unless it takes "extraordinary steps to monitor incoming infections."

U.S. death rate is 'quite sobering'

Furness contends "it's pretty clear" cases will rise.

What's unclear is by how much. With less reliable data, such as self-reported positive rapid tests, modelling becomes more challenging, he said.

But he points to the United States and Europe where cases have spiked after restrictions have been removed.

In the U.S., where mask mandates have been lifted in every state, there are about 1,600 COVID-related deaths every day, said Furness.

"We can't just say what happens there is going to happen here," he said. "But it could provide a pretty good clue. And certainly that daily death rate is quite sobering."

Political dominoes

Still, New Brunswick is not alone in its move to "living with COVID-19."

Newfoundland and Labrador, for example, is set to drop its COVID measures on Monday too, and Nova Scotia plans to follow a week later.

It's "political momentum," according to Furness, drawing a comparison to a game of dominoes. "When one goes, they all follow."

"After two years, people are fed up," he said. "And I think from a political standpoint, it's possible to look at this and say, 'Omicron's not that serious. … So we can just let it rip.'

The decision to release restrictions now is not science-based. It just isn't.- Colin Furness, epidemiologist

"In my estimation … it is quite serious and we're going to pay a heavy price for this."

Premier Blaine Higgs and Education Minister Dominic Cardy have both publicly denied COVID-related decisions are political. They've said they follow the recommendations of Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Jennifer Russell and Public Health.

"The decision to release restrictions now is not science-based," argues Furness. "It just isn't."

Public health officials don't have the ability to speak freely, he alleges, calling it a "really big problem."

Health-care workers in 'dangerous situation'

The Horizon and Vitalité health networks have decided to keep their hospitals at the red alert level after provincial restrictions are removed.

Nursing homes and special care facilities will also keep their COVID guidelines in place.

Furness isn't surprised. Hospitals are the second most dangerous places to be for COVID, after long-term care homes, a study in Ontario found.

"I suspect that's true elsewhere," he said, suggesting the "large roster" of New Brunswick health-care workers off the job, isolating after testing positive for COVID-19 "bears testament to that."

As of Friday, at least 577 health-care workers were off, according to the province's COVID dashboard. That includes 332 from Horizon, 181 from Vitalité, and 64 from Extra-Mural and Ambulance New Brunswick.

COVID and kids

At a minimum, Furness contends COVID restrictions in schools, particularly masks, should also be maintained.

Omicron hits children harder than previous variants, he said, and masks have played an important role in keeping the spread in schools under control. "So if we take that brake off, I think we can look forward to a great deal of child illness."

Although most children do not require hospitalization, about 70 or 80 per cent of all child hospitalizations since the pandemic began have been within the last couple of months, said Furness, including those aged four and under.

Masks in schools make sense

Deonandan agrees it "makes sense" to keep mask mandates in schools.

The states that have done away with masks have done so because they have high vaccination rates and very good health-care capacity, he said.

New Brunswick's health-care capacity is "still good, but diminishing," according to Deonandan.

As of Friday, 17.6 per cent of youth aged 12 to 19 have received a booster dose, 82.5 per cent have received two doses and 87.7 per cent have received one dose, according to the dashboard.

Among children aged five to 11, 36.9 per cent have received two doses and 59.4 per cent have had one dose.

There are also children under five who are still too young to be vaccinated to consider, said Deonandan.

"I don't understand the rush to remove the masks," he said. They're "extremely highly impactful," low cost, and simple.

A total of 12,889 cases of COVID have been reported at schools since the beginning of the school year — more than 10,400 of them in the past month, the Department of Education's COVID dashboard, which has been discontinued, shows.

The department "supports individuals who wish to continue wearing a mask based on their own risk assessment and comfort level, and we will work with school districts to ensure that a supportive environment is maintained," spokesperson Flavio Nienow has said.

End of cold/flu season 'way better timing'

Furness thinks the province should wait until April — the end of the cold and flu season — to decide whether to lift restrictions by May or June.

He feels confident cases will decrease by then and it will be "way better timing," with the warmer weather and people outside more.

"Then we would be able to say, 'OK, let's maybe take masks off and maybe kids in schools can keep them on for the balance of the year, because that's not such a such a big thing to ask.'

Monitoring will be key

Deonandan contends decisions shouldn't be tied to calendar dates, but rather to the number of COVID cases per day, vaccination rates and hospital capacity.

Once those thresholds have all been met for several days, it's OK to lift restrictions, he said, but monitoring is key.

"The places that have done COVID well all have three things in common. One, they acted early, they acted hard. Two, they got really good at case detection, that's testing. And three, they got good at monitoring their borders for the movement of infection, either being exported or imported.

"And if you're going to remove restrictions, you've got to get good at those three things again."

The Department of Health has said no changes to COVID testing are planned.

Surveillance, including random testing of sample groups, will continue to identify and respond to elevated levels of risk.