8 ridings to watch in the New Brunswick election

New Brunswickers are heading to the polls today and what could end up being a tight election may come down to what party wins a handful of key races.

Progressive Conservative Leader David Alward came into the election with a large majority government, but he faced a rocky path to re-election.

The Tories focused their election campaign on creating future jobs in the forestry and shale gas industries and tried to avoid talking about the province's high unemployment rate in the last four years or some of the party's broken campaign promises from 2010.

Also adding to the electoral intrigue, the province's riding map was redrawn and the number of MLAs cut to 49 from 55. The redistribution process has forced several sitting MLAs to run against each other.

The following are eight ridings that could produce some of the most interesting results tonight.

1. Fredericton South

​The downtown Fredericton riding could be the closest race in the province on election night.

Fredericton South has a four-way race emerging with Progressive Conservative Craig Leonard, Green Party Leader David Coon, NDP candidate Kelly Lamrock, Liberal Roy Wiggins. Independent Courtney Mills is also running in the riding.

Leonard has been a high-profile cabinet minister in the Alward government, but Leonard’s campaign has run up against pension reforms that have proved to be unpopular especially with retired civil servants. 

But there has not been a central challenger that has emerged to take on Leonard.

The NDP’s Lamrock, the former Liberal education minister, was a high-profile candidate heading into the campaign.

But the Green Party’s Coon has also benefited from the heightened visibility that is afforded to party leaders during the campaign.

By contrast, Wiggins has run a low-profile campaign for the Liberals. However, he may benefit from the Liberal lead in the province-wide polls.

2. Saint John Lancaster

​The NDP's fortunes in Saint John were given a boost when former Liberal MLA Abel LeBlanc bolted from his old party earlier this year. 

LeBlanc, who was elected in the riding in 2003 and 2006, is a feisty, plain-spoken politician with a strong local following. But it is unclear how deep the party’s roots are in the riding.

LeBlanc lost in 2010 to Progressive Conservative Dorothy Shephard.

Saint John has also been viewed as a stronghold for the Tories because of their strong commitment to energy projects in the area.

Shephard, a sitting cabinet minister, will try to tap into that support for energy projects and hope LeBlanc splits the vote with the Liberals.

Liberal Peter McGuire will need to draw on the party’s traditional support base if they want to wrest control of the riding from the Progressive Conservatives.

3. Miramichi

​Miramichi is one of several ridings where sitting MLAs will be competing against each other.

The main battle is expected to be between Progressive Conservative Robert Trevors, who was elected in the riding of Miramichi Centre in 2010, and Liberal Bill Fraser, who has represented the former Miramichi-Bay du Vin since 2006.

It is unclear how much of a factor former PC MLA Michael (Tanker) Malley will be in the race. Malley, who was the legislature’s Speaker in 2006, is running as an Independent in the riding.

Miramichi is the largest city in northern New Brunswick. In the 1990s, the city was created by the merger of Chatham and Newcastle, along with several other smaller villages.

This is the first campaign where the remnants of the towns of Chatham and Newcastle are in the same riding.

4. Memramcook-Tantramar

​Memramcook-Tantramar features a race between two sitting MLAs in a new riding that is currently facing a court challenge for failing to protect the francophone linguistic minority.

Progressive Conservative Mike Olscamp had represented Tantramar since 2006, which includes the riding’s largest community, Sackville. Liberal Bernard LeBlanc won the former riding of Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe in 2006 and 2010.

Both candidates say the key to victory will hinge on drawing large numbers of supporters from the part of the riding that they didn’t represent in the last legislature.

NDP Helene Boudreau will need to boost her party’s past performance in the two ridings.

The NDP was not much of a factor in 2010 in Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe and the Green Party placed higher than the NDP in Tantramar.

5. Carleton-Victoria

​The revelations about the fraud charges against Liberal Andrew Harvey, his father and brother and the subsequent withdrawal of those charges generated a tremendous amount of interest in the western New Brunswick riding. 

The riding includes a large section of the former Carleton riding, which has been a Tory stronghold since 1993. But this is the first election that Tory Dale Graham will not be on the ballot.

PC Colin Lockhart is running to replace Graham.

It is unclear what the lingering effect of the fraud charges will have on Harvey’s campaign or whether he could benefit from a sympathy vote.

The Liberal campaign will need to motivate their base, particularly from the northern part of the riding, where the Liberals have had electoral success in previous elections.

6. Saint John Harbour

​Saint John Harbour had the tightest race in 2010 and it is featuring a very similar slate of candidates in 2014.

Tory Carl Killen won by a meagre seven votes over Liberal Ed Doherty and 123 over NDP candidate Wayne Dryer.

Killen and Doherty are back with their parties, but this time Dryer has left the NDP and is running for the Greens.

The NDP are fielding Gary Stackhouse in the riding.

This riding could also come down to a four-way race depending on how much support Dryer can bring with him from the NDP.

The Tory campaign may benefit from Saint John’s willingness to embrace the party’s pro-shale gas platform.

Doherty’s campaign will need to hold onto the party’s traditional base and hope it can lure back some of its supporters that fled the party in 2010.

7. Moncton Centre

​Anyone who was watching question period in the final session of the legislature knows that Liberal Chris Collins and Tory Marie-Claude Blais did not have much affinity for each other. They routinely launched blistering partisan attacks at one another.

The two MLAs represented separate ridings in the last four years but redistribution forced them into the same riding in this election.

Both Collins and Blais had very close election results in 2010 so they do not have the luxury of losing much support in this campaign.

Collins comes into the election with more experience. He’s been in the legislature since winning the Moncton East byelection in 2007. Blais was elected in 2010 in the riding of Moncton North.

Collins could benefit from the frustration in the city aimed at the Tories over the decision to build the replacement for Moncton High School outside of the downtown area.

8. Fredericton West-Hanwell

NDP Leader Dominic Cardy has not run a campaign typical of a party leader that desperately needs to win a seat in the legislature. 

The NDP has not held a seat in the legislature since Elizabeth Weir resigned in 2005. 

Cardy spent much of the last week campaigning in other ridings, trying to drum up votes for NDP candidates.

For Cardy, his path to victory is banking on the visibility given to him as a party leader and leaching support from the Liberals and PCs and turning it into a three-way race.

Cardy is facing Progressive Conservative Brian Macdonald, who was first elected in 2010 in Fredericton-Silverwood. Macdonald’s new riding also includes sections of the former York riding, which was won handily by the Tories in 2010.

Macdonald will need to hold onto that support as he could lose votes in the Fredericton area over issues such as pension reform, which has been unpopular, particularly with retired civil servants.

Liberal Bernadine Gibson will need to cling to the party’s traditional support and recruit as many disaffected Tories as possible if she hopes to win the riding.