New Brunswick's energy puzzle comes into focus at climate committee meetings

The energy puzzle that N.B. Power is trying to solve in Belledune and Mactaquac in the next decade came into sharper focus this month after several days of hearings at the New Brunswick Legislature.

It became clear small modular nuclear reactors aren't, on their own, the magic bullet that will replace coal in the next seven years, or achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

But utility officials made it equally clear it'll be much harder to get there without them.

"The one thing I can tell you based on what we know today is there's no one solution. We need to throw everything we've got at a net-zero future," said Brad Coady, N.B. Power's executive director of business development and strategic planning.

Coady underscored the key role of emissions-free nuclear power when he told MLAs that if the Point Lepreau generating station near Saint John hadn't started operating in 1983, there would now probably be three coal-fired power plants in Belledune, in northern New Brunswick, not just one.

"Our whole carbon picture in New Brunswick would be completely different," he  said.

Coady acknowledged cost overruns and performance issues at Point Lepreau but said without the plant, three coal plants in Belledune might be generating 2,000 megawatts of greenhouse-gas emitting power, not just the current 450.

"That would have been an absolute nightmare to solve today if we hadn't had nuclear in our mix." 

Renewable power not enough, MLA told

The two days of meetings of the legislature's climate change and environmental stewardship committee were held so supporters and opponents of small reactors could make their case.

But at times the sessions turned into a Jenga-like head-scratcher illustrating the complex challenge — and the high-risk decisions — facing the province.

MLAs were told renewable power, like wind and solar, won't be enough to hit key deadlines.

Belledune is New Brunswick's last coal-fired power plant and must shut down, or convert to another fuel source, in time for a federal coal phaseout in 2030.

There's also a net-zero carbon goal looming in 2050.

At the same time, N.B. Power and the province are grappling with whether to extend the life of the utility's largest hydroelectric dam at Mactaquac, west of Fredericton on the St. John River.

And it's all happening amid record growth in the province — growth that will likely drive greater demand for electricity.

The utility says the all-time record for peak demand, set the morning of Feb. 4 of this year in the midst of a harsh winter cold snap, won't be the last.

"It's a trend. We're going to set peak demand records on a regular basis as we go forward," said Andy Hayward, the utility's chief nuclear engineer.

"We're going to attract more population to the province. We're going to attract industry to the province. The demand's going to go up."

Quebec wasn't able to export surplus power from its grid to New Brunswick on Feb. 4, Hayward said, and there was actually too much wind for turbines to generate power.

"One of the reasons we look to nuclear is it's available 24/7," Hayward said.

He and Coady cited a 2021 paper by University of New Brunswick economist and research chair Herb Emery, which said without Lepreau the province might still be emitting greenhouse gases at much higher 2005 levels. 

What, then, are the pieces of the puzzle N.B. Power has to work with? 

If nuclear power is a valid option, the question becomes whether the two companies developing small reactors in Saint John can pull it off and by what date.

ARC Clean Energy says its first SMR will be ready to operate at Point Lepreau by 2030. But its 100 megawatts would not be enough to replace Belledune's 450 megawatts from coal.

There would still be "a significant shortfall in megawatts," ARC CEO Bill Labbe said.

Moltex Energy Canada's proposed SMR, also to be located at Lepreau, would generate 300 megawatts, coming closer to filling the gap.

But company CEO Rory O'Sullivan said it won't be ready for 2030.

Moltex's technology will use waste from the existing Point Lepreau generating station to power its reactor. O'Sullivan said the company will build its waste facility by 2030 "or just after," and the reactor itself after that. 

So SMRs won't be enough to make up for Belledune in time for 2030 — even assuming Mactaquac remains in place.

N.B. Power's been talking about the dam refurbishment for a decade but no final decision has been made on the project, which carries an estimated cost of around $3 billion or more.

As pricey as that is, Coady told MLAs that giving up the dam's clean, renewable, emissions-free electricity is virtually unthinkable in light of the net-zero target.

"It almost becomes a no-brainer," he said.

"You almost need to have it. There's alternatives if you don't [but] the costs of those alternatives are going to make Mactaquac look like it's very cheap, good value for money. We're going to have to get there." 

The dam also makes it easier for the utility to add other renewable sources to its grid, he said, because a dam can run all-out when demand is high, then gear down and store water during less busy times when wind can take over.

Importing power another option

N.B. Power recently issued a new request for proposals for an additional 220 megawatts of renewable power, the majority of it from wind, and 50 megawatts of battery storage capacity that would give it more flexibility when demand fluctuates.

It's also shopping for a supply what's called torrified biomass in the coming year and will test it in March 2024 to see if it burns well at Belledune.

Coady said the biomass product resembles charcoal briquettes and "kind of mimics the actions of coal."

It could burn enough to replace Belledune's full 450-megawatt update and would be considered carbon neutral because it would come from sustainably harvested forests, the utility said.

Importing power is another piece of the puzzle, especially if the proposed Atlantic Loop — a regional connection of provincial power grids — is built, allowing N.B. Power to buy more hydroelectricity from Quebec and Labrador.

N.B. Power will issue its latest integrated resource plan this fall, a document published every three years that projects where and how it will generate electricity into the future.

Coady pointed out that when the last one was published in 2020, Ottawa hadn't approved the province's carbon pricing system for large industry. 

And at the time the one before that was released, there was no federal requirement to phase out coal — so the plan will always have to adapt to new realities and alternative scenarios, he told the committee.

"There will be a Plan B, C and D for net zero for New Brunswick, under all scenarios with and without nuclear, and with and without Mactaquac, I might add."