NB Power could energize electric car sales for $20M

NB Power could significantly accelerate the sputtering adoption of electric vehicles in New Brunswick — and unlock significant new revenues for itself — by spending $20 million to install more fast-charging stations around the province, according to a new report commissioned by the utility and filed with the Energy and Utilities Board.

"Further investments by NB Power in public charging infrastructure will significantly increase EV [electric vehicle] uptake, load growth and associated revenues to NB Power," concludes the report by Montreal-based Dunsky Energy Consulting.

Electric vehicles are still a rarity in New Brunswick, with fewer than 350 registered in the province. But widespread public adoption of the vehicles is coming, according to Dunsky — a lucrative development for NB Power, it says, could be made faster and larger with the right nudge from the utility.

Electric vehicles are seen as an important future source of revenue for NB Power not just because of the power they will consume but because of when they will consume it. Electric cars are often charged by owners at home overnight during times when NB Power has a surplus of  low-cost energy to sell.

"Direct investments in infrastructure deployment by NB Power can drive significant additional value to the utility and to rate payers." Dunsky concludes.

Milda Titford and her husband, Aidan, took possession of a new Tesla Model 3 in Fredericton just before Christmas, part of the trickle of consumers who have made the switch so far in New Brunswick. 

"There was an ecological aspect and, yes, of course you're saving on gas," said Titford.

"We really love it."

According to Dunsky, thousands of New Brunswick consumers will soon be joining Titford.

It projects 10,000 electric vehicles in New Brunswick within five years, 20,000 within seven years and up to 80,000 by 2034, if the market is left to grow on its own and various assumptions about that growth holds true over time.  

But it says NB Power could trigger a near doubling of that 2034 number to 156,000 electric vehicles if it installed more fast-charging stations in both populated and underserviced areas around New Brunswick.

"Our modelling shows that ongoing growth in the EV population within NB will drive an ongoing need for expansion of this infrastructure to avoid congestion and to ensure full geographical coverage across the province."

Fast-charging ports are 10 times more expensive to install than more common Level 2 car chargers but can provide enough power for an electric vehicle to travel 100 kilometres in just 10 minutes. 

New Brunswick currently has 141 electric car charging stations with 184 outlets installed by a variety of public and private sector interests around the province. But only 33 of those stations are fast-charging.

Dunsky says adding 80 new fast charging locations with 200 more outlets to plug into would cost $20 million but pay major dividends for the utility.   

It argues the stations would fill enough gaps in infrastructure to encourage New Brunswick consumers to buy up to an extra 76,000 electric vehicles than currently expected by 2034 and that would generate up to $108 million in extra income for NB Power after expenses over the next two decades.

"The increase in revenue due to beneficial load growth more than offsets the increased costs associated with these investments and the cost of servicing the EV (electric vehicle) load," says the report.

NB Power has clashed with the Energy and Utilities Board over the appropriateness of using public money to install charging stations in the past and in 2018 was ordered to stop spending money on the infrastructure.

"Developing these stations requires considerable up-front investment," said the EUB in disallowing a plan by NB Power to spend $1.3 million on expanding its network at the time.

"EV [electric vehicle] charging stations are not within the core business of NB Power and are already provided by the private sector, without any ratepayer investment. Without a convincing business case, NB Power should not be expanding this program."

The Dunsky report does provide a business case and contends privately funded charging stations in New Brunswick will be insufficient in future years to trigger significant new growth in electric vehicle sales NB Power investments could.

The utility did not immediately respond to a request for comment about whether it plans to use the report to revisit the issue with the EUB.