Baby totals for 2018 likely higher than provincial estimate, says official

Estimates by Statistics Canada, and the province’s historical margin of error, bring into question the claim that only 5,448 children were born in the province last year.

Province won't know total until April, after all the paperwork is completed

Jordan Gill · CBC News · Posted: Jan 04, 2019 4:00 AM EST | Last Updated: January 4, 2019

Statistics Canada estimates that 5,058 children were born in the province during the first three quarters of 2018, only 390 fewer that Service New Brunswick’s year end estimate. (Getty Images)

Estimates by Statistics Canada, and the province's historical margin of error, bring into question the claim that only 5,448 children were born in the province last year.

Statistics Canada estimates that 5,058 children were born in the province during the first three quarters of 2018, only 390 fewer than Service New Brunswick's estimate for the entire year.

Government spokesperson Valerie Kilfoil said in an email to CBC news that the numbers released by the province on Dec. 28 were only preliminary and the province expects "the final numbers to be more in line with the recent trends."

Number of New Brunswick births tumbles 17 per cent to record low

Say hello to New Brunswick's first babies of 2019

Kilfoil said the collection of statistics is done through April the following year, because a birth isn't recorded until all the registration paperwork is finalized.

"What takes time and is difficult to predict is the followup work needed to be done to finalize a birth registration once received from a facility in instances where information and certification [parents' signatures] are missing," said Kilfoil.

"Some records may be completed after one communication while others may take two or more followup communications to get completed."

Drastic variations

Service New Brunswick has historically been wrong in its preliminary baby numbers, sometimes by more than 700. (Daniel McHardie/CBC)

Historically, Service New Brunswick's year-end estimate has been off by a wide margin.

The Crown corporation announced 6,015 babies were born in 2016, but final numbers on the its website indicated 6,550 babies were born, a change of 535.

The numbers for 2017 were even further apart.

Emma, William top baby names this year in New Brunswick

Service New Brunswick announced a preliminary birth number of 5,738, but 6,441 babies were born, a change of 703.

Kilfoil concedes that more context is required to understand the numbers but they part of a news release about baby names, and the estimate was included because such information is expected.

"If we put out a story about baby names, the logical next question from reporters is how many babies were born," Kilfoil said.

"That is why a number was added based on the info we had at the time."

Moving up

Although New Brunswick was the only province in the last census to show a drop in population, the population is now at its highest in recorded history, estimated at more than 772,000. (CBC)

While the reported number of births may appear to show a looming demographic crisis for the province, the opposite may be true.

Population estimates for the province have generally been on the upswing since 2016, with the province only seeing a decrease in the first quarter of 2017.

The population is estimated to have grown by 11,658 people since 2016, with 4,028 of that increase coming in 2018.