Moncton sees multimillion-dollar deficits in coming years tied to pandemic

Moncton's municipal finances could be in for a long-lasting, multimillion dollar hit requiring tax increases or spending cuts, according to city staff projections outlined Monday. 

Staff presented a new long-term outlook at a committee meeting that forecasts what could happen under scenarios where the pandemic reduces property assessment value growth in the province's largest city.

The projections represent a change in how Moncton staff view the impact of the pandemic, as council was originally told not to expect significant changes in assessment values. 

"We could be in a challenging position if COVID has a big, big impact," Jacques Doucet, the city's chief financial officer, told councillors. 

Doucet said the latest figures were based on "worldwide research" and preliminary conversations with various people.

"There will be an impact on assessments in 2021, certainly," Doucet said, adding it's unknown if it will be greater in the years that follow. 

He said while New Brunswick's economy looks like it will recover, the uncertainty comes from whether a broader recession impacts Toronto and countries like China, which could affect private investment in things such as new construction in Moncton. 

Several years of flat assessment growth would compound over the coming years.

Property assessment values play a significant role in determining municipal finances. The province assesses properties, taking account of various factors that include the market value if a property were to be sold. 

The city's property tax rate is then multiplied against the assessed value, resulting in property tax revenue for the city. 

Doucet suggested it's unlikely a newly opened hotel with no rooms reserved would be assessed the same as if it opened before the pandemic. Two new downtown hotels are nearing completion in Moncton. 

The city had prepared its budget assuming it would see two per cent assessment growth over the next three years, leaving it in a surplus position.

But Doucet said following the research and discussions, staff prepared two new scenarios. 

The first would see assessment growth dropping to one per cent over the next two years resulting in deficits of $1.4 million and $2.8 million in 2021 and 2022. Even if growth then recovered to levels predicted before the pandemic, staff forecast the city would have cumulative deficits of $12.6 million over the next decade. Doucet described this as the "more probable" scenario.

The second scenario forecasts the growth rate at zero per cent the next two years, before it increases to one per cent by 2023. That would result in deficits starting at $2.8 million and climbing to $6.2 million in 2023. The city would face cumulative deficits of $88.3 million by 2031. 

Since municipalities cannot legally run deficits, either scenario would require new revenue, such as a tax increase, or significant spending cuts over several years. Moncton's operating budget is $161.8 million this year.

Doucet said under the second scenario with a structural deficit, the city could require assistance from the province. However, he said if it's only a year or two with a deficit, the city could cut capital spending and use funds from reserve accounts. 

Mayor Dawn Arnold and several other councillors suggested they'd oppose a tax increase. 

"We can't be raising taxes for our citizens," Arnold said. "People are really suffering right now. That's the last thing they'll want or be able to sustain."

City council has already approved delaying capital spending and other measures to reduce a projected $3.5 million deficit in 2020.