Higgs no outlier as he maps end to COVID restrictions

Blaine Higgs says he's not blinking.

The New Brunswick premier says the further loosening of COVID restrictions on Feb. 18 is not a concession to protesters, including those who plan to bring a trucker convoy to Fredericton this weekend.

"That isn't the way to make decisions," he says.

While he hopes the timeline he's laying out will persuade "moderates" that the protest is now a waste of time, he insists the move to Level 1 is consistent with the plan he laid out in December.

It also happens to dovetail with where public opinion, other governments and many public health experts are going. 

The Angus Reid Institute recently found that 54 per cent of Canadians it polled support an end to restrictions, the first time in a long time that a majority has held that view.

The firm's president Shachi Kurl calls it "a significant number."

"It is a signal that Canadians are starting to move in a certain direction, and it's probably incumbent on politicians to know that if they're going to continue to double down on restrictions, they're going to have to make a case for why or risk losing the room."

Higgs announced Wednesday that the province will move to Level 1 of its COVID winter plan on Feb. 18 and could scrap the provincial emergency order and its remaining restrictions by the end of March.

"The end of the mandates is certainly in sight," he said. "When we make that decision, it will be based on science."

He was less clear about the future of mask and proof-of-vaccination requirements, which are part of a Public Health Act regulation due to expire at the end of April. It's separate from the emergency order.

While Higgs defended the move to Level 1 as science-based, he said it's also a nod to fatigued New Brunswickers who've done everything right from the beginning.

"The public have been with us on this. They want to see changes. They want to see improvements. They want to see the benefits of being vaccinated and that's what we're trying to accomplish here based on the science."

Kurl says much of the support for lifting restrictions comes from fully vaccinated Canadians who feel less at risk than before, and who no longer can justify the trade-off of restrictions.

Public health officials are starting to make the same case. 

Last week Canada's Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said it's time restrictions such as border controls and vaccine passport requirements were "re-examined."

"We do need to have longer-term, sustained approaches and capacity-building so we're not in a crisis mode all the time as we fight this virus."

Some infectious disease doctors who have supported strict rules until now are also speaking in favour of adjusting them as cases and hospitalizations peak and start to come down, as long as there is protection for vulnerable populations. 

"The writing's on the wall," Regina infectious disease specialist Alexander Wong said on CBC's The Current.

Other provinces are laying out timelines for phasing out restrictions. Prince Edward Island, one of the strictest jurisdictions in Canada, says mandatory indoor mask-wearing will end April 7.

In the U.S., some Democratic governors who once supported strict mask requirements are now ending them. 

Denmark has lifted its COVID-19 restrictions despite big case counts, concluding that a high vaccination rate and a pattern of generally mild Omicron infections means the cost-benefit of strict regulations no longer exists.

New Brunswick's rate of fully vaccinated people is the same as Denmark's, around 81 per cent, though the percentage of people here with boosters is 45 per cent compared to 62 per cent of Danes.

Kurl says not everyone will be happy. The lifting of restrictions "is going to freak a lot of people out" and lead to some stress.

But "it's not as though we are where we were a year ago, or at the height of the Delta wave when people were still in that more hunkered-down, pro-restriction mentality," she said. 

The recent Angus Reid poll that suggested 54 per cent support for ending restrictions also suggested that Canadians are less worried about the consequences of catching COVID-19.

Eighty-five per cent of respondents said they expect that if they're infected, their illness will be mild and manageable.

That's why Conservative politicians like New Brunswick Southwest MP John Williamson are saying the trucker protest represents something more profound than an extremist fringe.

"I believe public opinion is moving on this and it's actually moving pretty quickly."

The convoy in Ottawa was seen as a liability for Conservatives but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau needs to adjust his rhetoric as the political mainstream loses patience with restrictions, Williamson said.

"He's going to have to begin to moderate his approach. I think he's going to have to change." 

Kurl says the large majority of Canadians that had supported restrictions up until now may start to fracture into two camps, with some wanting rules to stay in place while others rethink their position.

The drop in support for restrictions is "among people who are fully vaccinated, who have largely leaned into restrictions, who have listened to their medical official health officers, followed the rules and more or less done everything that's been asked of them," she says.

"You're now incorporating a lot of people who have been to this point pro-restriction, who are fully vaccinated, and who are just saying at this point, 'enough is enough, I had it, a loved one had it and it wasn't the worst thing in the world, and maybe we have to get on with this.'"