COVID-19 surged in Fredericton over holidays, new wastewater data reveals

Fredericton had a surge of COVID-19 just after the holidays, newly released wastewater data indicates.

The capital was added to the Public Health Agency of Canada's COVID-19 wastewater surveillance dashboard Tuesday night, joining Moncton as the second New Brunswick location on the national website launched nine months ago.

Data dating back to Dec. 22 shows Fredericton's seven-day rolling average of viral load, expressed as the number of viral gene copies found in a millilitre of raw sewage, started out at 17 copies/ml.

By Jan. 2, it jumped to 165 copies/ml.

Some jurisdictions, such as Vancouver's Lulu Island, have seen readings over 1,000 copies/ml during the peak of the pandemic.

"Comparisons across sites can be difficult … however, a similar surge was experienced in parts of Halifax, Charlottetown and Montreal over the same time period, in addition to other areas across Canada," Anna Maddison, a Public Health Agency of Canada spokesperson, said in an emailed statement.

"Nonetheless, some sites were also relatively 'quiet' following the holiday period."

In Moncton, where sampling began in June, COVID levels reached a record-high before the holidays — on Dec. 1 — when the seven-day rolling average of viral load was 132 copies/ml, the dashboard shows.

The viral load dropped to 39 copies/ml by Jan. 5 and stood at 12, as of Jan. 19, the latest figures available.

Fredericton's levels also dropped back down to 29 copies/ml, as of Jan. 19.

Five weeks of data are required to provide "meaningful trend results," Maddison said.

Can provide early warning

The Department of Health has described wastewater surveillance as a "crucial tool for public health authorities."

People who are infected shed the virus in their stool in the form of a genetic material called ribonucleic acid, or RNA, which can be found in raw sewage, typically five to seven days before they develop symptoms.

Wastewater results can serve as an early warning of increasing COVID-19 in a community and provide information on the variants circulating.

People can also use wastewater trend data to make decisions about personal protective measures when going out into their community.

"Unlike clinical and point-of-care [rapid] testing, wastewater surveillance provides the opportunity to monitor COVID-19 activity independent of clinical test availability, testing eligibility, or the population level testing and reporting compliance," department spokesperson Adam Bowie has said.

The government's COVIDWatch report for the week ending Jan. 7, when the Fredericton spike occurred, showed the Fredericton health region, Zone 3, had the third highest number of confirmed cases of COVID in the province.

Of the 521 cases of COVID confirmed through a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) lab test that week, the Saint John health region, Zone 2, had 158 (30 per cent), the Moncton health region, Zone 1, had 131 (25 per cent), and the Fredericton health region had 99 (19 per cent).

Saint John and Bathurst sites not ready yet

Last month, Bowie told CBC the province planned to launch two more COVID-19 wastewater surveillance sites — in Saint John and Bathurst.

Those sites aren't ready yet, he said in a recent email. "At least one site was waiting for the arrival of necessary equipment."

Both sites are expected to be added "in the near future," Bowie said.

P.E.I. lab funding could mean faster results

New Brunswick tests its own wastewater samples at the Public Health laboratory located within the Dr. Georges-L.-Dumont University Hospital Centre. But each sample is also sent to the national microbiology laboratory in Winnipeg for additional testing and validation, Bowie said.

If the $1.5 million in federal funding recently announced for a P.E.I. lab could "support additional testing capacity here in our region, or help Atlantic Canadian governments expand the number of test sites, New Brunswick would be open to exploring those opportunities," he said.

Last month, federal Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos visited the Atlantic Veterinary College at the University of Prince Edward Island, which is getting the funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada to "enhance COVID-19 wastewater testing capacity for the Atlantic provinces."

"Wastewater monitoring is the future of public health surveillance for infectious diseases in Canada," Duclos said in a statement at the time.

The project, he said, will "increase the range and speed of wastewater testing results for Atlantic Canadians resulting in a rapid and cost-effective approach for early detection of outbreaks and surges."

It will allow COVID-19 testing to be completed quickly in the region, without the need to ship the samples to the national lab in Winnipeg, the Public Health Agency of Canada spokesperson said.

It will also help develop local capacity and knowledge regarding wastewater testing that could be used for other projects in the future, said Maddison.

"Laboratory testing services through the P.E.I. lab will be extended to all Atlantic provinces at no cost to the submitters," she said, noting participation is always at the discretion of provinces and territories, and municipalities.

No advice from Fredericton

CBC asked the City of Fredericton if it had any advice to offer Saint John and Bathurst on getting set up, based on lessons learned, but Dan Harvey, manager of water resource recovery, did not answer directly.

"The City's only role in the program was to collect the samples based on the protocols and sampling equipment supplied by [the Department of Environment and Local Government]," he said in an emailed statement.

The department contacted the city last year to see if it would be interested in providing wastewater samples to the national COVID-19 surveillance program, said Harvey.

Fredericton began sending its samples on Dec. 22, and sent two samples per week, he said.

Harvey did not provide any comments on the results.