Masks, delta and deadlines: Six months of mixed messages in New Brunswick's COVID fight
Dire warnings gave way to talk of ‘hope’ as restrictions were lifted ahead of fourth wave
Remember when we were winning?
Last spring, New Brunswick was one of the shining stars of the fight against COVID-19.
"People living in other provinces and around the world look at us with envy when they see how much freedom we have been able to enjoy while still avoiding the full force and the damage of COVID-19, and all that it can create," Premier Blaine Higgs said May 27.
He was right. At the time.
We never plunged as deeply into crisis as Alberta or Saskatchewan, but we've lost our bragging rights.
Half our COVID deaths have happened in the last six weeks. At the end of October we had the second-highest provincial death rate in the country after Saskatchewan.
The spike followed months of mixed messages and contradictory signals.
It was a half-year in which the premier described masks as a punishment, and the province's chief medical officer of health spoke of intangible goals like hope and undercut her own deputy's stark advice about masks.
April 27: Hard talk on delta
24 new cases, 137 active cases, six hospitalizations including two in ICU, 36 total deaths
At a COVID-19 briefing, Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Jennifer Russell says officials are "very, very concerned" about a new variant of the novel coronavirus, later called the delta variant, that has arrived in New Brunswick.
Because variants are more contagious and can cause more severe symptoms, Russell says her office will presume that all new COVID cases are variants.
Russell says we need to err on the side of caution by strictly following Public Health rules.
"This new variant introduces yet another layer of complexity to our effort to control COVID-19, and the issue is not what we know about this particular variant but rather than we don't," she says.
May 27: Let's talk about hope
9 new cases, 137 active cases, six hospitalizations, including 2 in ICU, 43 total deaths
The province announces its "path to green," a three-step winding down of restrictions if New Brunswickers reach higher vaccination rates, including a full lifting of all rules on New Brunswick Day, Aug. 2, when 75 per cent of eligible people should have two doses.
The sombre, guarded tone of a month earlier is replaced by decidedly non-medical language.
"We do need something to revive us so that we can continue to do what we need to do and all the things that we need to get done," Russell says. "That thing is hope. With hope we can find a new level of determination."
Russell says the ending of restrictions on Aug. 2 will lead to more cases, but with a 75 per cent vaccination rate, vaccines will now do the "heavy lifting."
"Our health-care system will be able to manage the cases that occur beyond that point. The road ahead is now clear."
A reporter asks Russell about the threat of variants she warned of just a month earlier.
"I didn't really want to focus on that today because we're focusing on hope," she says.
Premier Blaine Higgs is equally upbeat: the province will soon move "beyond" the pandemic.
"The finish line is indeed now in sight and we just need to make it through this final sprint."
But the premier warns that if vaccination goals are not met, "we will have to delay our target dates" for lifting restrictions. "We need to do this right."
July 23: Green phase arrives early
3 new cases, 10 active cases, zero hospitalized, 46 total deaths
Higgs abandons his May commitment to delay reopenings if targets aren't met. He declares that all remaining restrictions will be lifted on July 30, even if the fully vaccinated rate doesn't reach 75 per cent.
"Today is a day we've all been looking forward to and I'm sure it's one I will always remember," he says.
Only 62 per cent of eligible New Brunswickers are vaccinated. Higgs predicts the rate will be "about 70 per cent, if not higher" by July 30 and declares, "We are comfortable with this."
He also says that percentage "will be sufficient to balance out many of the current risks of living with COVID-19." (The rate will reach only 66.7 per cent on July 30.)
In the days following the announcement, experts question the premier's confidence.
In other jurisdictions that reopen quickly, "delta comes back, and it comes back pretty hard," says Colin Furness of the University of Toronto. "It is just a question of when."
He says at minimum, mandatory mask requirements should remain for indoor public places.
But Higgs says he wants restrictions gone so people can be together.
"To me that's the current emergency, that we need our families and our lives to get back together."
Mask rules, however, hadn't been an impediment to the gatherings and travel within Canada that had been allowed for several weeks already at that point.
Aug 26: A strong recommendation on masks
8 new cases, 157 active cases, zero in hospital, 46 deaths
With cases ticking up through most of August, Russell's deputy chief medical officer of health, Dr. Cristin Muecke, delivers a blunt message at a public briefing.
"Given our current case numbers and the evidence of community spread, I urge all New Brunswickers to continue to wear a mask when they are in indoor public spaces," she says.
Muecke's comments are similar to Furness's: rising vaccination rates are not enough to keep COVID at bay.
"We have to have other tools as well, such as masks, in order to protect people as effectively as possible."
However, there's still no indication mask rules will come back. Health Minister Dorothy Shephard calls wearing masks indoors "a smart thing to do."
Muecke goes further. "It is a strong public health recommendation at this time."
Aug. 27: 'A debate we could have' on masks
16 new cases, 160 active cases, zero in hospital, 46 deaths so far
The next day, in an interview on CBC's Information Morning Fredericton, Higgs undercuts Muecke's stern warning.
"If you feel better wearing a mask, certainly do that. There's no harm in that."
He says the province will look at whether a new mandatory mask rule is needed, but for now, it's not necessary because case numbers are "exactly what we expected."
The scientific consensus is that vaccinated people can carry the virus unknowingly, without symptoms, and spread it to others.
But Higgs says requiring vaccinated people to wear masks would "penalize" those who've done the right thing by getting their shots.
"You could say, 'Should everyone wear a mask because you've chosen not to get vaccinated?' That could be a debate we could have," he says.
"The focus is on those who are unvaccinated."
Muecke, in fact, said "all" New Brunswickers should wear masks indoors.
Sept. 1: 'The choice is yours'
11 new cases, 127 active cases, no hospitalizations, 46 total deaths
At the day's COVID briefing, it's Russell's turn to undercut her own deputy's strong language on masks.
"It is going to continue to be a choice," she says. "The choice is yours whether you choose to continue to wear a mask in indoor public spaces."
Public Health will later report that 37 per cent of the COVID-19 cases in July and August were "screened as presumptive delta." Case growth has flatten, but the numbers remain far higher than they were when Higgs lifted restrictions.
Even so, Russell and Higgs avoid the dire warning Muecke issued just a few days earlier. The premier again characterizes masks as a punishment for the unvaccinated.
"The last thing we want to do is penalize those who have taken steps necessary to protect themselves, their loved ones and our province," he says.
Asked about Muecke's stark comments about masks, Russell says there have been "so many changes and evolutions of the virus itself and the epidemiology."
"Being in the green phase is a whole new learning process," she says, adding people can choose to wear masks "in certain situations," such as if they're experiencing anxiety.
Russell also says she has no modelling of case and hospitalization numbers for the fall and is relying "in a general sense" on Canadian modelling.
Sept. 17: "There's lots of opinions."
57 new cases, 370 active cases, 17 in hospital with 10 in ICU, 48 deaths
Cases, hospitalizations and death continue to rise. But Higgs brushes off a reminder that Colin Furness warned the province not to reopen too soon.
The province has its own experts, he says in another interview on CBC's Information Morning Fredericton.
"There's lots of opinions from one direction or another," he says.
"At this point" there is still no recommendation on masks from Public Health.
The premier also chafes at a question about his own decision to not wear a mask in public. While it's clear masks mainly protect others, not the wearer, Higgs still sees going unmasked as a reward for the vaccinated.
"We went in green for a reason," he says. "We did that so people would have freedom. I am fully vaccinated, and I do not feel uncomfortable being [unmasked] out in the public, because I am fully vaccinated.
"So it is a personal choice. My choice is showing people that if you become fully vaccinated, you are part of the solution."
Sept. 20: Mask rules are back
199 new cases over three days, 484 active cases, 23 people are hospitalized including 14 in the ICU, 48 deaths
Case numbers continue to soar, and despite Higgs's skepticism three days earlier, mandatory mask rules are put back in place.
Despite her equivocal comments about masks on Sept. 1, Russell now says her office has "always recommended that everyone wear a mask in indoor public spaces."
Sept. 24: New emergency order
78 new cases, 573 active cases, 31 in hospital, including 15 in ICU, 52 deaths
The province declares a new state of emergency and adopts a new COVID-19 emergency order.
According to Public Health, 88 per cent of the cases between Sept. 1 and Sept. 19 are the delta variant. Infectious disease specialist Dr. Gordon Dow of Horizon Health says that in retrospect, the Aug. 2 reopening was "not the right decision."
"The decision we made at the time was based on the facts available and the situation our province was in, and how we would go forward," Higgs says. "It's always easy to look back."
In the days to come, Higgs will say that he was caught by surprise by how slowly people got vaccinated after restrictions were lifted — even though the province was well short of the target the day the change was made.
Oct. 21: 'COVID is here to stay'
67 new cases, 763 active cases, 55 in hospital, 16 in ICU, 100 deaths
A sombre Higgs marks what he calls "a terrible milestone" as deaths surpass the 100 mark.
He also acknowledges that the pandemic finish line he said was in sight in May may not exist.
"I thought we could move past COVID and embrace a new normal with family and friends and the lifestyle that New Brunswick provides," he says.
"It is extremely hard to come to terms with the fact that COVID is here to stay."
The premier acknowledges he and his team "may have made mistakes along the way," but he says angry comments from the public are "hurtful" and make it hard for that team to continue fighting COVID.
It's now time to find a way to live with the disease "in a lifestyle that's acceptable."
And Higgs falls into line with what Colin Furness said in July, three months earlier.
"New information is emerging all the time," he says, "and it is now clear that vaccination coupled with other public health measures are our best chance for success."
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