Take staggered approach to reopening province, says epidemiologist

Once the provincial government begins reopening parts of society, it should not be a green light for everyone sheltering at home to head back to places of work or education all at once, according to an epidemiologist who researches the spread of pathogens through social networks.

"Please don't all go back to work, school, university all at once because we will definitely get another wave," said Ann Jolly, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa and former Public Health Agency of Canada official.

She said New Brunswick could endure a second wave or multiple waves of COVID-19 as the province commences its recovery plan, and experts and government officials warn acting too swiftly risks a resurgence.

Public Health announced Tuesday the third consecutive day with no new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus, leaving the total number of positive tests in New Brunswick at 118 — 102 of whom have recovered. The province is considering loosening some emergency restrictions for early May and work is underway in devising the plan. 

But Jolly said there will be surges as the virus makes its way into new groups of people previously unaffected, consistent with previous pandemics like SARS. She used the example of the Yukon, which has 11 confirmed cases, but that could change once travel restrictions are lifted.

Countries that are further ahead of Canada in the pandemic have already seen the next wave, including China and Hong Kong, and federal government officials continue to caution the public.

In late March, Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's chief public health officer, was already urging the country to be prepared for another wave, saying "this virus is going to be with us for some time." Last week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned that easing restrictions too soon could bring about another wave just as damaging as the first.

Jolly said there are several factors to consider before relaxing restrictions and ensuring the health-care system does not become overburdened. They include a staggered approach in permitting people to re-enter society.

In her experience, some workplaces have opted for calling in rotating groups of employees, she said, and some governments have staggered the return date for university and public school students.

She also said special attention needs to be given to nursing and long-term care homes during that process because those facilities represent places where a surge could occur.

Premier Blaine Higgs maintains the province will take a "gradual" and "methodical" approach in reopening the province and workplaces will have to follow Public Health guidelines.

"We will need to move slowly and we must be careful," Higgs said. "We were fortunate in New Brunswick but we cannot take this for granted."

Jolly also cautioned against out-of-province travellers, especially since neighbouring jurisdictions like Nova Scotia, Quebec and Maine are worse off. 

"As soon as people start travelling through from Quebec and Nova Scotia, it will start to pervade more, it will start to come more into New Brunswick and infect pockets of people that perhaps weren't affected before," Jolly said.

The premier has said opening provincial borders won't be happening soon and that would be one of the last measures to be lifted.