Province predicted COVID-19 hospitalizations would drop to near zero by weekend

The New Brunswick government predicted in February that the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations would drop to almost zero by this weekend.

Instead, the province recorded 10 more COVID-related deaths April 3-9, and a record high 192 people are hospitalized, 20 of whom require intensive care, according to figures released Tuesday by the Horizon and Vitalité health networks.

Public Health reported only 79 people in hospital, including 13 in ICU, on its new COVIDWATCH website.

But that's only people hospitalized for COVID, not people who were initially admitted to hospital for another reason and later test positive for the virus.

The regional health authority figures include both, like the province used to on its former COVID-19 dashboard.

On Feb. 9, the province presented COVID hospitalization projections if the province moved to Level 1 of the COVID-19 winter plan from Level 2.

It showed moving to Level 1 on Feb. 11 could lead to a peak of 300 people in hospital. It did not differentiate between those admitted "for" COVID or "with" COVID.

If the province waited until Feb. 18, hospitalizations would "rise modestly and then stabilize," Dr. Jennifer Russell, chief medical officer of health, said at the time. The graph showed that was predicted to be about 190 between late February and early March before decreasing again to zero or near zero by April 16.

"The height and timing of predicted peaks in hospitalizations [are] subject to considerable modelling uncertainty," the graph noted.

Department of Health spokesperson Bruce Macfarlane said the graph was "used to compare two dates, and the corresponding cases for each, to illustrate the best time for the province to move into Level 1.

"The purpose of the exercise was to convey the impacts of changing measures within a given time frame," he said in an emailed statement.

The projections "were not meant to calculate impacts following the removal of population level controls at a later date."

The Department of Health has previously stated that bumps in cases were to be expected going forward, however the volume of cases hospitalized for COVID was expected to stabilize within hospitals across the province.- Bruce Macfarlane, department spokesperson

New Brunswick lifted all COVID-19 restrictions, such as masking, mandatory isolation for positive cases, physical distancing and gathering limits, on March 14.

"That said, the Department of Health has previously stated that bumps in cases were to be expected going forward, however the volume of cases hospitalized for COVID was expected to stabilize within hospitals across the province," Macfarlane said.

He did not provide a timeline and the department has ignored all requests from CBC over the past month to release any new modelling for hospitalizations, ICU admissions or deaths.

Last month, a former department spokesperson sent CBC the same Level 1 projections graph presented on Feb. 9, but under a new title, Predicted peaks in hospitalizations.

It detailed "the landscape and anticipated trajectories of COVID-19," Gail Harding had said.

The modelling "anticipated approximately 100 hospitalizations, on average, by mid-March, which was confirmed," she had said.

"Modelling is one of many factors used to determine whether restrictions are required or can be lifted," Macfarlane said Thursday.

"The province continually conducts surveillance and monitoring of COVID-19. Should models be shared, they will be made publicly available."

In addition to the deaths and hospitalizations, 7,734 new cases of COVID were recorded in the past week. That includes 3,962 people who tested positive through PCR lab tests and 3,772 people who self-reported testing positive on rapid tests.

Based on PCR tests alone, there are now 5,721 active cases across the province.

New Brunswick is now facing the threat of a sixth wave that could be fuelled by a new Omicron subvariant called Omicron XE, which is a combination of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2. It's 10 per cent more transmissible than BA2, which is 60 per cent more transmissible than BA1, according to the chief medical officer of health.