Brian Gallant must assess drop in support, pollster says

Premier Brian Gallant's Liberal government needs to assess how it is burning through political capital less than a year into its mandate, according to a polling executive.

Gallant's Liberals saw their share of decided voters slip to 38 per cent from 54 per cent three months earlier in the latest Corporate Research Associates political poll.

Don Mills, the polling company`s chairman, said the Liberals wasted a significant amount of goodwill with the public with its decision to alter the government's policy on nursing fees.

"I just think they need to consider what their overall objective is as a government, what they want to achieve," Mills said on Tuesday.

"If they are going to be unpopular for awhile let them make all the tough decisions now and give them time to recover."

The Liberal budget in March contained several fee and tax increases.

However, Finance Minister Roger Melanson and Health Minister Victor Boudreau, the minister responsible for the strategic program review, have consistently said next year's budget will be more difficult.

The Liberals have said they are trying to deal with a $600-million structural deficit.

Mills said he was surprised Melanson's budget did not include a two-percentage-point increase in the Harmonized Sales Tax. An bump in the HST would have raised roughly $270 million.

CRA's chairman said the Liberals have lost an entire year of revenue for failing to make that decision.

"They have basically 18 months in their mandate to make all their tough decisions and after that they aren't going to be making tough decisions because they are going to be more concerned about getting re-elected," Mills said.

"That is the way politics works in this region."

Mills's latest poll showed that 41 per cent of New Brunswickers were mostly or somewhat satisfied with the Gallant government compared to 56 per cent in February.

Mills has said that no Atlantic Canadian government has been re-elected if it has less than 50 per cent satisfaction.

NDP rise linked to Alberta election

While the Liberals saw their satisfaction levels in decline, the NDP earned a jolt of support.

The NDP saw its support jump to 23 per cent in May from nine per cent in February.

The CRA chairman said the party`s support is a bounce from the election of Rachel Notley`s NDP government in Alberta.

"We saw a significant increase in NDP support overnight with really nothing to point to within the province that would have caused that increase in support," Mills said.

"So we can only assume that a lot of increase in support came from the Alberta election, which I think sent a signal to those people who maybe were tentative about considering the NDP as an alternative government to reconsider that position."

This isn't the first time the NDP has seen a surge in support between elections. After Jack Layton's federal NDP won Official Opposition status, the New Brunswick NDP saw a bump in support.

In May 2013, the NDP's support hit 27 per cent. However, the NDP saw its support drop and it failed to win a seat in the legislature in last September's election.

According to the latest CRA poll, the Progressive Conservatives had 28 per cent support, the Green Party had 11 per cent and the People's Alliance had one per cent.

CRA conducted the poll between May 12 and June 1. The firm sampled 802 New Brunswickers. The margin of error on the poll is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error on the question of party support for decided voters is 4.7 percentage points based on a sample size of 442 people.