Brian Gallant's Liberals still hold lead in support, CRA poll shows

Premier Brian Gallant's Liberals are continuing to hold a wide lead over their political rivals despite seeing its overall popularity erode in the aftermath of the February budget, according to the latest Corporate Research Associates polls.

The CRA poll found 45 per cent of New Brunswickers supported the Liberals in February — a drop from the 55 per cent they held in November.

The Progressive Conservatives are supported by 27 per cent, followed by NDP at 18 per cent. The Green Party is at eight per cent and the People's Alliance at two per cent. Those who are undecided grew to 29 per cent from 25 per cent.

Don Mills, the chairman and chief executive officer of CRA, said the Liberals lost their boost in popularity from November that came with the victory of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals in the federal campaign.

"So they got the halo effect but this has come back to where it was, in the previous poll in August," Mills said.

"It really shows there is quite a split between those satisfied and those dissatisfied by the Gallant government at the moment."

Popularity drop post-budget

The poll shows a clear drop since Finance Minister Roger Melanson's Feb. 2 budget, where he announced the cash-strapped province would increase the HST by two percentage points.

The number of people who were completely or mostly satisfied with the government fell to 43 per cent in February, down from 53 per cent in November.

Provincial governments with a satisfaction level below 50 per cent often have trouble when it comes to being re-elected, Mills said.

Considering the provincial budget announced the HST hike and some spending restraint measures, Mills said the satisfaction levels could have been much worse.

"They might count themselves as lucky," he said.

"The problem for the Liberal party is they've had a significant amount of people dissatisfied with their party for the better part of a year. I thought they spent some of their political capital on the wrong things in the first year."

The CRA poll surveyed 763 people from Feb. 10 to March 2. The margin of error is 3.6 percentage points, 95 times out of 100. Once the undecided rate is removed from the voter support figures, the margin of error increases to 4.7 percentage points.

Gallant still leads opponents

Gallant's personal approval ratings also took a beating in the latest poll, despite still maintaining a wide lead over his opponents.

Gallant was picked by 30 per cent of those polled as the best person to be premier, followed by interim Tory leader Bruce Fitch at 19 per cent. 

Green Party Leader David Coon and NDP Leader Dominic Cardy are both at 10 per cent. The People's Alliance Leader Kris Austin is at two per cent.

CRA's Mills said there isn't a lot of great news for the other parties in the latest political survey.

"If you look at the Conservatives, they've been in the same mid to high teens in support of their leader. They are in a narrow band of support around 25 to 30 [per cent], so their base is solid," he said.

"There has been a lot more fluctuation with the NDP ... and it's status quo for those other parties."