Political frenemies: Gallant, Kenney oddly find common ground on carbon tax policy

In politics, the enemy of your enemy is often your friend. But with Premier Brian Gallant's climate plan, the enemy of his friend may be his … frenemy?

Gallant is one of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's closest allies, while Jason Kenney is emerging as one of the prime minister's fiercest opponents.

Yet the two provincial leaders are looking like carbon copies of each other on climate policy.

This week Kenney, the leader of the United Conservative Party and the odds-on favourite to win next year's Alberta election, mused about adopting a carbon price that sounded a lot like Gallant's: one that targets industry while sparing individuals.

"I think the solution here is not punishing consumers," Kenney told CBC's Power and Politics, promising to roll back the NDP carbon tax applied at gas pumps and on home heating fuel since Jan. 1.

Compare that to what Gallant said in the legislature in March: "We will ensure that the consumers don't have to pay more."

'There's definitely similarities there'

Gallant put his carbon price in place April 1, but most New Brunswickers didn't notice: it converts a share of the existing tax at gas pumps into a carbon tax, with no net increase for drivers. It also exempts residential natural gas.

"On the consumer side, there's definitely similarities there," said Louise Comeau, a climate policy researcher at the University of New Brunswick.

Kenney and Gallant also find themselves on parallel policy tracks with heavy emitters.

Gallant will adopt the federal industrial levy, which will see plants that emit carbon dioxide, such as the Irving Oil refinery, ranked next to their sector counterparts. Those that exceed the average will be charged the levy.

"Large businesses, large corporations, large industry, will pay their fair share," Gallant said earlier this year.

Meanwhile, Kenney says if he becomes premier, he would be "comfortable, probably, going back to what we had as a levy, a tax, on major emitters."

The Specified Gas Emitters Regulation, introduced by a previous Alberta Progressive Conservative government in 2007, collected the levy and paid out the revenue as grants to help municipalities, companies and others develop lower-emission technologies.

It was replaced as part of the Alberta NDP's broader carbon tax, which took effect earlier this year.

Saskatchewan also has a climate plan with an industrial levy but no consumer carbon tax.

University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe said if Kenney and Gallant are aligned on the broad brushstrokes of climate policy, it's likely an accident of politics.

"I suspect the parallels aren't deliberate," he said. "Instead, they're likely responding to the same political reality that taxing large emitters is popular, i.e., 'make polluters pay,' while taxing households and smaller businesses isn't."

Comeau said while the rhetoric may be similar, the industrial-levy mechanisms in the two provinces would be different.

Provincial governments like New Brunswick that adopt Ottawa's levy system may get the money back to spend on climate programs, but the federal government said it may also rebate the money to individuals.

Differs on climate plan stance

There are also political contradictions inherent in the Gallant-Kenney two-step, if it comes to pass after next year's Alberta election.

Gallant strongly supports Trudeau's climate plan — even though federal Environment Minister Catherine McKenna said his gas-tax shuffle doesn't conform with the plan's requirement that emissions be made more expensive for consumers.

Meanwhile, Kenney is seen as Trudeau's chief climate antagonist, promising to fight the national plan in court. He argues imposing a federal carbon tax on provinces that are offside is unconstitutional.

Ottawa, too, may struggle to be consistent in its response. If McKenna punishes Kenney, she would likely have to punish Gallant, too. If she gives Gallant a pass, she should logically do the same for Kenney.

There is one major difference between the two provincial leaders: Gallant said New Brunswick doesn't need a higher carbon price because it's already on track to hit its provincial emission-reduction targets.

Kenney, meanwhile, said there's no realistic chance Canada can meet its targets, so given the country emits only a tiny share of global greenhouse gases, it's foolish to damage his province's economy with overly stringent carbon taxes.