Premier Higgs has his majority government. Now what?

The day Blaine Higgs was elected leader of the Progressive Conservative party in 2016, one political scientist predicted that Liberals would be popping champagne.

But it was Higgs who was sparkling Monday when, after two years heading a minority government, he clinched a majority victory.

The idea back then was that a leader who didn't speak French and who had a history with an anti-bilingualism party would not be able to win an election. 

The premier's margin, 27 seats compared with a total of 22 for the three opposition parties, is a narrow one mathematically.

But it's decisive in the context of a four-party election and his chronic weakness in northern New Brunswick, which put more than a dozen seats out of his reach at the outset.

The outcome answered two key questions.

Could Higgs win without picking up northern francophone ridings? Yes, he could.

And would voters punish him for going to the polls during the COVID-19 pandemic? No, they did not. In fact, they liked his approach and rewarded him for it. 

Now new questions present themselves for Higgs and for the other parties in the legislature.

What will he do with his mandate?

In February, Higgs withdrew a health reform plan that would have included the nighttime closure of emergency departments in six small hospitals.

He claimed at the time that he hadn't realized how complex the implementation of the plan would be, but the reversal also came after the three opposition parties threatened to defeat his government in a confidence vote.

Now Higgs doesn't need to worry about that risk. With 27 out of 49 seats, he can win confidence votes and pass legislation without the other parties. 

There's still a fix needed for staffing shortages in the health system, and Higgs has education and municipal governance reforms on deck as well. 

He's promising to continue reaching out to the Liberals, Greens and People's Alliance, but if push comes to shove, he knows he no longer needs to. 

How will he reach out to francophone New Brunswick?

Higgs failed again to score major wins in francophone New Brunswick. Candidates that the PCs touted as electable stars went down to defeat across the north and along the eastern coast of the province.

That can be traced to his inability to speak French and his difficulty articulating sympathy for a minority language community for whom both concrete and symbolic gestures go a long way.

Even in his victory speech Monday night, there was only a passing acknowledgement of the challenge, and no nod to the special circumstances of a culture that has to push hard to preserve itself.

"I will continue to be inclusive and collaborative," he said. "North, south, urban and rural, our government to be focused on helping all regions succeed."

Sole PC francophone elected in Moncton East

Later, he told CBC News: "It isn't about doing something unique or different, it's about treating people fairly so we all rise together."

One asset Higgs has is Daniel Allain, in the riding of Moncton East, the only francophone PC candidate elected Monday night.

Allain's sure to be a key figure in the premier's new cabinet, as the previous lone francophone, Robert Gauvin, was until his resignation in February over the hospital reforms.

Unlike Gauvin, however, Allain is a seasoned political operator, who knows how to pick his battles and manoeuvre to achieve his objectives.

How long will he stay?

Higgs has frequently joked that he didn't set out to become premier for his health or to have fun. 

He's also 66 years old, which means he'd be a septuagenarian by the time the next scheduled election rolls around in 2024. 

So having secured a four-year term in power, he may opt to do what he feels needs to be done in that time span and retire before the next campaign.

That in turn makes it likely Higgs will want to move fast with big reforms in health, education and municipal governance and try to lock in the changes so they'll last.

What does it mean to be a Liberal now?

For the opposition Liberals, this outcome may prompt a reckoning about the future of the party.

While the Greens won no new seats Monday, their popular vote rose from 11.9 percent in the 2018 election to 15.2 percent, which could indicate the party is gaining ground as the progressive alternative to the PCs.

Liberal Leader Kevin Vickers touted himself as both "greener than the Greens" and a fiscal conservative when he became party leader.

But the grassroots never got a chance to hold a policy convention to thrash around new ideas.

NB Liberals should move left: Wayne Long 

Instead, Vickers found himself on the campaign trail promising to spend more money in many areas where Higgs was already acting. 

He then veered left on abortion access and glyphosate spraying with an abruptness that looked more like electoral calculation than carefully considered policy. 

Saint John-Rothesay Liberal MP Wayne Long, who considered running for the provincial leadership, suggested Monday night that the New Brunswick party should follow the Justin Trudeau model and shift boldly to the left.

"I look forward to working with fellow progressives across our province to ensure our provincial Liberal Party is ready to lead a progressive governing coalition in four years," he said.

What's next for the smaller parties?

The Greens and the People's Alliance had remarkably similar breakthroughs in 2018, each winning similar shares of the vote and electing three MLAs.

Their paths barely diverged Monday: the Green vote grew nicely, but that didn't get any new MLAs elected. The Alliance vote shrank a bit, but they only lost one MLA.

The Greens placed second in 12 ridings, eight anglophone constituencies in the south and four francophone ridings in the north and east. 

If the Greens can position themselves as the second choice for both PC and Liberal voters, they would have prospects for future growth. 

But the mainstream parties are called "mainstream" for a reason: they have a history of finding their way to the political centre and can't be counted out. 

The Alliance, meanwhile, now finds itself an opposition party in the true sense of the word: the PCs no longer need their support to govern, which may see the Alliance become more aggressive with Higgs in the legislature. 

Still, leader Kris Austin avoided being wiped out in a PC wave in southern New Brunswick. He has lost his leverage but survives to fight another day.

New Brunswick Votes 2020 Results: See our interactive results page.