Ukrainian Montrealers fear full-scale Russian invasion could be imminent
Community on 'pins and needles' as Russia orders troops into breakaway regions of Eastern Ukraine
Until recently, when Montrealer Tetyana Tsomko would call friends and family back in Ukraine, they would chat about their weekends, how the relatives were doing and what the kids were up to these days.
Now their conversations are filled with talk of bomb shelters, air raid siren tests, children doing emergency drills at school and the looming threat of armed conflict with Russia.
"Last week, the stress level really augmented incredibly," said Tsomko, who moved to Montreal 12 years ago with her husband and daughter and is originally from Chortkiv in Ternopil Oblast, in Western Ukraine.
"The situation is changing hour by hour."
Tsomko is one of tens of thousands of Quebecers of Ukrainian descent, who are watching anxiously as Russian President Vladimir Putin orders forces into breakaway regions of Eastern Ukraine.
Monday, Putin recognized the independence of the regions Donetsk and Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine and ordered Russian forces to "maintain peace" in those regions. On Tuesday, Russian lawmakers authorized Putin to use military force outside the country, bringing the possibility of a full-scale conflict even closer.
'Nobody wants war'
While 18-year-old Montrealer Arsene Pivtorak has tried to stay focused on his studies, he finds himself fully invested in following the escalating conflict in his home country, and fact-checking fast-spreading rumours and reports, sometimes even among his peers.
"I have Russian friends. And in the Russian media, they say that they are going to free Ukraine, that, you know, it's not a war, it's peace," said Pivtorak, an international studies student at CÉGEP du Vieux Montréal.
"All the disinformation that is happening, I'm trying to counter it as I can."
"When you compare … the danger of losing your country with losing some time on your homework, I mean the choice is evident," he said.
WATCH | Concern for family and friends in Ukraine:
Pivtorak, who moved to Montreal with his family when he was 11, worries about family back home, though they are also in the western part of the country.
"I don't want to see them die in a war that is provoked by some geopolitical crazy man, you know, a former KGB agent that wants to bring the U.S.S.R. back," he said.
That concern is echoed by Michael Shwec, president of the Quebec chapter of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, who fears Putin is set on dismantling Ukraine "bit by bit."
"Nobody wants war, but for some reason Putin has now decided he's going to invade his neighbour," said Shwec.
"What is extremely disheartening to see is that now he is really blatant in his narrative, especially if you follow what he tells his own people that … Ukraine is not a true state and should not exist."
In his speech recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, Putin painted Ukraine as a modern construct that inherited traditionally-Russian territory
"He believes that the whole of Ukraine is part of Russia, as been historically been part of the Russian Empire, and it needs to return to that, to the fold," said Maria Popova, associate professor of political science at McGill University, specializing in European rule of law, political corruption and legal repression of dissent across the post-Communist region.
Popova, who has conducted field research in Russia and Ukraine, believes Putin's territorial designs on Ukraine, rather than a concern for the welfare of Russian-speakers in Eastern Ukraine, is the main driver of Russia's recent actions.
Tougher sanctions
Tsomko believes the Ukrainian military is better prepared now than during the 2014 annexation of Crimea, in part because of material support from allies, including Canada.
She says most of her friends and family in Western Ukraine are preparing to stay put, and are stocking up on goods in case of shortages.
But she says some, especially those with small children, are looking at contingency plans. She says a friend living near the Polish border is considering fleeing to Poland if the conflict escalates, while others have talked about whether Canada, or European countries, might end up accepting refugees displaced by the conflict.
Eugene Czolij, the honorary consul of Ukraine in Montreal, is also concerned about the possibility of conflict in Ukraine displacing even more people internally.
But Czolij hopes that tougher sanctions and increased military support from Western allies will be enough to deter Putin from starting a larger military conflict.
"That is probably the only true deterrent from a full-blown invasion of Ukraine," said Czolij.
In the meantime, Tsomko and other Ukrainian Montrealers are planning more demonstrations, and hoping for a peaceful resolution, even if they're not sure if they can expect one.
"I cannot predict anything, really," Tsomko said. "Putin is so unpredictable."
With files from Jay Turnbull, Annie Deir Sarkissian & Alex Leduc