Trans-Pacific Partnership: What it could mean for Quebec and you

Canada has signed on to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a massive new 12-country trading block with implications for hundreds of millions of people, hundreds of products and industries, and for long-term relationships between countries on four continents.

• TPP deal 'in best interests' of Canadian economy, Stephen Harper says
• TPP trade agreement reached but contentious as ever

The full details of the tentative agreement, which must be ratified by each country, haven't been made for public.

Here's what we know and what it could mean for both Quebec industries and consumers.

Lower grocery prices? Harper says so

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper says the deal will lead to lower grocery bills as new products become available from overseas. 

One of the benefits to Canadians, it was implied, was that savings would be passed down straight to consumers and their wallets. But, experts say, it's unlikely the deal with make a big dent in Canadians' grocery bills or car purchases.​

"Don't expect to see huge changes or a huge drop in prices," said Ambarish Chandra, a pricing expert who teaches at the University of Toronto's management school. "Really, there's very little evidence that's going to happen."

Quebecers may see even less of those savings. 

The province's dairy industry is regulated with minimum retail prices that are higher than elsewhere in Canada and the United States. 

Sylvain Charlebois, a professor of distribution and food policy at the University of Guelph's Food Institute, said there's a chance that retail prices could fall mainly outside Quebec. 

"When you look at prices dropping at farm gate, usually consumers do win over the long term; that's what we've seen over the last five to 10 years," he said.

"There are no guarantees, but you actually do increase that possibility."

New markets (and competition)

Quebec's exports of industrial goods to TPP countries were worth an annual average of $38.9 billion between 2012 and 2014. 

According to the federal government, the deal will "significantly improve market access opportunities for Quebec's industrial goods sector, including metals and minerals, chemicals and plastics, and vehicle parts."

In particular, it will give the Quebec aerospace industry, which represents more than 40,000 jobs in the province, access to roughly "half of the world's air traffic growth over the next two decades being driven by the Asia-Pacific region."

Challenges to province's dairy industry

Quebec accounts for about half of Canada's dairy farms, and the industry was concerned the deal would open as much as 10 per cent of the country's dairy market to imports.

In the end, Canada only offered access to far less - 3.25 per cent of the market phased in over five years. 

The federal government reportedly approved a $4.3-billion compensation fund to be paid to farmers and processors over the first 15 years of this agreement.

• Trans-Pacific Partnership cause for relief, says Quebec dairy farmer
• Quebec dairy farmers panicked over Trans-Pacific deal

Benoît Simard, who runs a dairy farm in Stanstead, Que., said he's concerned about the potential new market. 

"At first sight, it's not good news because it's 3.25 per cent [in lost demand]," told CBC Montreal's Daybreak.

"A lot of farms don't have much more profit than this, so it will be a good chunk to take on."

Marcel Groleau, president of a union representing 42,000 Quebec farmers, said the TPP deal coupled with the recently reached agreement with the European Union means the country's milk sector will have to open a "very important" extra five per cent to foreign competition.

Couillard government praises deal

Jacques Daoust, Quebec's minister of the economy, innovation and exports, welcomed the new deal, saying it would give the province the Trans-Pacific Trade Pact, saying it gives the province access to a market of 800 million consumers. 

Daoust admitted Quebec had no choice but adds that a number of sectors will benefit from the deal.

"The aerospace, manufacturing and mining sectors have a net gain on this. Why because all those barriers to the 11 other markets will be down in five to 10 years from now." Daoust said. 

"In the food business, part of it is a clear winner."

Quebec Agriculture Minister Pierre Paradis said the pact won't be easy on the province's milk producers. He also said the playing field is not level. 

"The Canadian health department forbids a milk producer in Quebec to use growth hormones on its cows," he said.

"It's allowed in the United States. If you refuse it for health reasons in Canada, it's hard to explain why you should let that producer come in."

Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe, meanwhile, said he was "disappointed" with the agreement.