Quebec's business sector welcomes Biden win, hoping for more stable trade relations
After four years of trade disputes, lumber and aluminum sectors were frustrated with Trump
Even the prospect of protectionist trade polices from the incoming U.S. president did not damper relief in Quebec economic circles at Joe Biden's election win.
Representatives of Quebec's lumber and aluminum industries expressed hope this weekend that a Biden White House will bring more stability to bilateral trade relations, which had been marked by turbulence under outgoing President Donald Trump.
"We will go from a climate of uncertainty to a climate of predictability. That will help with decision-making," said Jean Simard, head of the Aluminum Association of Canada.
In August, the Trump administration decided suddenly to slap a 10 per cent tariff on imports of Canadian aluminum, the vast majority of which is produced in Quebec.
The tariffs were lifted roughly a month later, but the U.S. then imposed limits on the amount of aluminum that was allowed to enter tariff-free, and vowed to revisit that limit after the election.
In 2018, the U.S. had also imposed a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian aluminum. It was removed about a year later while the two countries, along with Mexico, were hammering out an update to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Though protectionist "Buy American" provisions were a central plank of Biden's platform, he has also signalled he is more interested in limiting overproduction of aluminum in China than clashing with traditional allies.
"Donald Trump represents uncertainty," said Sylvain Maltais, president of a steelworkers union in the Saguenay, where most of Quebec's smelters are located.
No miracle solutions to softwood lumber
Quebec's lumber producers also had to contend with Trump's aggressive trade policies and disdain for multilateral institutions.
In 2017, the U.S. government slapped a 20 per cent tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, claiming it was unfairly receiving public subsidies. Those tariffs cost lumber producers in Quebec roughly $800 million and forced plants to cut staff.
The World Trade Organization ruled in August the duties were unfair. But the Trump administration appealed the decision to a WTO panel that it is also actively trying to dismantle, a sign that the adminstration has no intention of lifting the tariffs.
It is not clear, though, that a Biden administration means a quick resolution to the softwood lumber dispute.
"The softwood lumber issue had evolved very slowly. There were some gains at the WTO. But I think the Biden administration and the Democratic party have very protectionist tendencies," said Pierre Corbeil, who heads the forestry committee of the Quebec Union of Municipalities.
Corbeil, who is also mayor of Val-d'Or, one of Quebec's centres of lumber production, said he still welcomed Trump's ouster. He expected Biden would not seek to antagonize Canada further in the lumber dispute.
"We'll see what happens. But I'm pretty sure it won't be their priority when they take office," Corbeil said.
'Managed free trade' the new norm
The Biden presidency is likely to consolidate a shift toward more "managed" free trade, said John Parisella, who served as Quebec's delegate general in New York City during the years Biden was vice-president under Barack Obama.
"There will always be protectionist reflexes that force us to be ready," said Parisella. "We can expect more managed free trade than perhaps we were used to before the pandemic, and certainly than what we saw in the 1980s and 1990s."
He said when it comes to trade, the important difference between Biden and Trump is style.
Trump is bellicose and content to air grievances publicly, whereas Biden can be expected to use more conventional diplomatic channels.
"Biden knows Canada; he has a great appreciation for Canada. So I would expect it to be closer to normality," Parisella said.
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As Premier François Legault waited, along with the rest of the world, for the outcome of the presidential election to be decided, he said Quebec would push to keep trade as free as possible with the States.
"Historically, Democrats are more protectionist than Republicans, but in the last four years we've had a very protectionist Republican president, so no matter who wins, Biden or Trump, we're going to have to keep fighting," he said.
With the outcome of the election now decided, Quebec's trade delegates in the U.S. will begin building networks as the new administration takes shape.
Legault may be hoping too that the Montreal ties of the next vice-president, Kamala Harris, will give him an in.
On Saturday, the premier issued a rare tweet in English to Harris, who went to high school in Montreal.
"We hope to see you soon," Legault said. "You will always be welcome in Quebec."
With file from Radio-Canada in Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean and Abitibi-Témiscamingue