How long will Mark Carney's honeymoon in Quebec last?
Experts say Carney yet to face tough questions about issues that matter in the province
As Mark Carney's term as prime minister begins, he's flying high in Quebec.
The most popular federal leader by far in the province, he would likely win a majority of seats if the election were held today.
"There's a significant Mark Carney bump in our polls," Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president of polling firm Léger marketing, told CBC in an interview.
"Early signs are that his presence really lifts the Liberals' fortunes in Quebec," he said.
But Dallaire and other experts believe Carney has yet to be tested on many Quebec-specific issues and irritants that have historically plagued Canadian prime ministers — such as secularism, language laws, and provincial autonomy.
"We're moving from a phase where the positive predispositions towards Mark Carney will now be tested in a more real-time, harder battlefield," Dallaire said.
Quebecers respect Carney's economic credentials
Experts say the main reason for Carney's popularity in Quebec is pretty simple, and it's the same reason that he's won support in the rest of the country: his qualifications in the face of threats posed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
"We know that this is going to be an election that's going to be not only centred on, but now it looks completely focused on, the relationship with the United States," University of Ottawa political science professor André Lecours told CBC in an interview.
Dallaire said Quebecers view Carney — with his experience leading central banks and in the private sector — as the best person to counter Trump's tariff threats.
Miville Tremblay, a senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, worked closely with Carney for years at the Bank of Canada, when Carney was governor and Tremblay was liaison with the Quebec financial community.
"We need an expert. We need someone who has crisis management experience, who's tough as nails and takes our interests to heart," Tremblay said.
Dallaire said as long as Trump and tariffs are a major issue, Carney should be able to maintain support in Quebec.
But that could change.
"What is the main ballot box question in a few weeks? Is it still about who's in the best position to defend Quebec and Canada against the threats coming from the United States? Or will the debates shift to something different?" Dallaire said.
"All these things will come into play during a campaign and will challenge Mark Carney in a way that he hasn't been challenged so far," he said.
Carney's 'rusty' French
If you look past his economic credentials, Carney's popularity in Quebec is a bit harder to understand.
For one, he's clearly less comfortable speaking French than English.
"He's done, I think, reasonably well when scripted, when giving a speech. It's been a little bit harder in a more informal setting — responding to journalists, or in the leaders' debate," Lecours, the political science professor, said.
At the French-language Liberal leadership debate, Carney was hesitant and halting in French, with a notable gaffe where he inadvertently said, "We agree with Hamas," instead of saying the candidates agreed on the exclusion of Hamas from Middle East peace talks.
"Clearly, his French is a bit rusty. He was never elegant or completely fluent, but he was more than functional," Tremblay said of his days alongside Carney at the Bank of Canada.
"We had many meetings with Quebec business leaders and the conversations were held in French and went fine, so I don't think it's a real issue," he said.
Dallaire said federal leaders need to focus on more than just language skills to break through in Quebec.
"The challenge is to find a way to show you really understand Quebecers, that you're really paying attention to their needs," Dallaire said.
Carney stumbled in a recent interview with Radio-Canada, when host Patrice Roy asked him in French what he knew about Quebec culture.
"I know the culture, the hockey, the music, and I like the humour of Quebec," Carney replied with a bit of hesitation and some awkward laughter.
Roy then asked Carney, a former hockey player who likes to use hockey analogies in his speeches, if he knew the name of the only Quebecer on Canada's 4 Nations Face-Off hockey team.
Carney said no, and even when Roy gave him a hint that it was a goalie, Carney was unable to produce the name. (For the record, it was Habs starting goaltender Samuel Montembeault).
A small thing, perhaps, but Dallaire said it's something that likely would have come easily to Quebec-born prime ministers such as Justin Trudeau or Brian Mulroney.
"For someone like Mark Carney, who comes from another province and doesn't speak French as comfortably, the challenge is more significant," Dallaire said.
A recent profile in La Presse revealed Carney was now getting a crash course in Quebec culture from advisers, who were familiarizing him with popular Quebec artists such as Cœur de pirate, Les Cowboys Fringants, Jean Leloup and Robert Charlebois.
Dallaire said endorsements and support from well-known Quebec cabinet ministers such as François-Philippe Champagne and Mélanie Joly should help, and Carney will have to lean on them to help him maintain support.
Vague stance on key Quebec issues
Carney may also find himself at odds with Quebec on key issues unique to the province, where his positions are so far a bit murky.
On Quebec's controversial secularism law, Bill 21, which bans some civil servants from wearing religious symbols while at work, Carney has been mostly quiet.
He even seemed to defend the law during the French-language leadership debate.
"I absolutely respect secularism, and the tradition of secularism here in Quebec," Carney said. But he supports federal intervention in the legal challenge of the bill before the Supreme Court of Canada.
His position on the province's controversial language law, Bill 96, is also unclear.
The Trudeau government didn't rule out intervening in an eventual court challenge of that law.
Asked directly during the French-language leadership debate if he supported Bill 96, Carney sidestepped the question.
"It's true that the French language faces big challenges here in Quebec. It must be strengthened. It must be promoted," he replied.
Lecours said Carney also faces a risk in going too far in presenting a united front of Canadian provinces against Trump's tariff threats.
"We must have one Canadian economy, not 13," Carney said during the debate.
Lecours said he's "not sure this type of language will be popular" with all Quebecers.
"Even if the incentives now to have a more integrated economy are definitely present, he still needs to keep in mind the federal nature of Canada and the position of Quebec within the federation," he said.
"That's going to be, I think, a fine line for him to walk," Lecours said.
CBC asked Carney's office for clarifications on his positions on all these issues, but did not receive a response.
Bloc targets Carney
So far, Carney seems to be walking the fine line fairly well.
Premier François Legault, whose government had several constitutional spats with the Trudeau government, congratulated Carney on his leadership win, calling him an "ally" for Quebec.
But with an election likely soon, Carney's main political foe in Quebec is sharpening his rhetoric.
Unlike in the rest of the country, where Carney's principal rival is Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, in Quebec, it's Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet.
"We can't think that Mark Carney is Quebec's new best friend," Blanchet said Thursday in Quebec city.
Dallaire said Blanchet will challenge Carney forcefully on Quebec issues that so far he's been mostly able to avoid.
"Blanchet is a good campaigner. He's a well-known figure in the province. And he'll ask tough questions to all federal leaders about what they are doing to protect Quebec's interests," Dallaire said.
Blanchet showed some of that flare Thursday.
"In Quebec, we speak French," he said.
"And the protection of French will be contested all the way to the Supreme Court with the tax money of Quebecers, whether it is Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre who is prime minister," he said.
"Carney must answer to the voters, and if he does not, there is a significant chance that the balloon will deflate," Blanchet said.
Dallaire said Carney better get used to this kind of scrutiny in Quebec.
"We know he won the leadership. He won handily. So that gives them a really good head start. But voters don't know him yet," Dallaire said.
"He's made a good first impression. But is he able to really make a lasting good impression?" he said.
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With files from Antoni Nerestant and Valeria Cori-Manocchio