More immigrants are staying in Quebec, Atlantic Canada struggling with retention, report finds

Immigrants are increasingly choosing to stay in Quebec, according to a new report from Statistics Canada, but the same isn't true in the Atlantic region, which continues to lose newcomers to the rest of the country.

Out of all the immigrants admitted into Quebec in 2021, almost 94 per cent of them were still in the province one year later — a jump of 8.8 percentage points compared with the 2018 cohort of newcomers. The largest increase of newcomers choosing to stay in Quebec was in the economic category, the StatCan report said.

Catherine Xhardez, assistant professor of political science at  Université de Montréal, said the StatCan report is welcome news for Quebec because unlike in the rest of the country, the provincial government controls its economic immigration stream.

"It's also a question of competition. You want the best and brightest to stay because if you invest in them, if you select them, you do not want them to go to Ontario," said Xhardez, who also directs ERIQA, a research group that studies immigration to Quebec.

Decades ago, when the Quebec unemployment rate was much higher than the current 5.7 per cent, immigrants were leaving the province at a much higher rate, Xhardez pointed out, saying job opportunities and social programs are key to keeping newcomers.

"It really depends on living conditions and opportunities for migrants. That is the biggest factor for people moving from one province to another province," she said.

With the latest data already a few years old, Xhardez admits that changes in Quebec's political climate — the government regularly blames immigration for threatening the French language — and the province's recent decision to freeze several immigration programs may impact future immigration trends. Such actions may have the effect of driving immigrants away, she said, especially considering other provinces also target francophones.

Lowest retention rates in Atlantic Canada

Quebec isn't the only province to have high immigrant retention rates. Ontario leads the country — 94.6 per cent of newcomers admitted to the province in 2021 were still there one year later. In British Columbia it was 91.7 per cent and in Alberta is was 89.5 per cent.

However, Atlantic Canada offers a stark contrast. The four provinces recorded decreases in one-year retention rates for immigrants admitted in 2020 compared with 2021. Newfoundland and Labrador recorded a 14.1 percentage point drop, Nova Scotia saw a 11.7 percentage point decrease, the drop in Prince Edward Island was 8.9 percentage points, and in New Brunswick it was 2.2 percentage points.

"Immigrants who left their intended Atlantic provinces were increasingly likely to settle in Ontario," the report said.

Meanwhile, the statistics agency also looked at five-year retention rates, analyzing how many immigrants admitted in the country between 2013 to 2017 were still in their intended provinces five years later.

"Among immigrants admitted from 2013 to 2017, those who intended to live in Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec were the most likely to reside in the same province five years after their admission," the report said. Five-year retention rates were highest in Ontario at 93.5 per cent, B.C. at 87.5 per cent, Alberta at 87.3 per cent and Quebec with 79.7 per cent.

Once again, the retention rates in Atlantic Canada were among the lowest in the country. In Nova Scotia, 61.7 per cent of immigrants admitted in 2013 were still in the province five years later, rising to 62.1 per cent for the cohort of newcomers who came in 2017. In New Brunswick, 51.7 per cent of immigrants admitted in 2017 were in the province five years later, a rise of 3.9 percentage points compared with the cohort who came in 2013.

For the cohort of immigrants who arrived in 2017, 45.6 per cent of them were still in Newfoundland and Labrador five years later; 25.7 of them were still in Prince Edward Island.

Lack of meaningful jobs, support to blame

Those figures come as no surprise to Tony Fang, economics professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, who said "lack of meaningful employment or perceived lack of it" was primarily to blame.

"That's the number one reason why they don't stay in the region," he said in an interview Monday.

"The second is family ties. The third reason is a lack of community support," he said, explaining that close-knit communities in the region can be difficult for newcomers, making them sometimes feel like outsiders.

Newcomers can more easily find their cultural communities and families in big cities like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, Fang said, adding that the region would do well to accept larger numbers of immigrants at once, as Newfoundland and Labrador did with Ukrainian and Syrian refugees.

And while immigration may be outpacing housing and social services in the country, he said the Atlantic region desperately needs newcomers to boost its economic development.

"We have the oldest population. We have the most severe labour demographic deficits. We have more severe skilled labour shortages, so immigration certainly has more positive impact for Atlantic Canada," Fang said.