On climate change, Quebec's parties propose leaving the hard work for future generations

Quebecers like to say they care about the environment. Of the first 25,000 people to complete CBC's Vote Compass survey, which asks voters for their priorities, 31 per cent listed the environment as the issue they considered most important in this election.

The environment was mentioned more frequently than any other issue in August ; more than health care; more than the economy.

But this finding confronts another quantifiable observation about Quebec: it is set to blow its 2030 emissions target, according to projections released earlier this year. 

At the moment, the province isn't even headed in the right direction. Between 2016 and 2019, emissions increased in Quebec by nearly three per cent, due largely to the continued brisk sales of SUVs and other gas-guzzling vehicles, as stated in the February report The State of Energy in Quebec 2022, published by HEC Montréal.

Environment a top issue, but policies unpopular

This is not an intractable problem. There are several well-established policies the next government could use to get the province back on track to meet its 2030 targets. 

But most of these policies would involve large numbers of Quebecers adopting a less car-dependent lifestyle, given transport accounts for the bulk of the province's emissions, according to the province's annual emissions report. 

So far, political parties have been reluctant to do more than gently suggest other ways of getting around.

"It's as if it's important to talk about [the environment], but when it comes down to doing something about it, a lot of the electorate becomes fairly cold to whatever is proposed," said Christian Bourque, vice-president of the polling firm Leger.

Speaking with CBC's Radio Noon last week, Bourque described a political logic in Quebec in which parties know they are expected to discuss the environment, but also know they will be punished if they propose measures seen as too drastic.

Yet it's those "drastic" measures — taxes on polluting vehicles, for example, or higher gas taxes — that experts say would actually help Quebec reach its emissions target.

Instead, Quebec's political parties have largely opted for proposals the would delay the hard work of fighting climate change in the hope that Quebecers will come around on their own. 

Some parties have long-term plans

To begin this overview at one end of the political spectrum, the Quebec Conservatives haven't even put forward an emissions reduction target. 

Leader Éric Duhaime has said meeting targets wasn't worth the effort given Quebec is responsible for only a small percentage of the carbon released into the environment.

The Coalition Avenir Québec, led by incumbent Premier François Legault, has sought to fend off the challenge from its right flank by presenting itself as a more pragmatic, sensible alternative to the Conservatives on the environment.

It does, at least, have an emissions target. But at 37.5 per cent below 1990s levels by 2030, that target is out of line with the latest recommendations from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which says reductions of 44 per cent are necessary to prevent the worst effects of global warming.

The CAQ government's plan for meeting its modest goal pinned its hopes on swapping electric cars for those powered by fossil fuel, which experts say is not likely to be sufficient to meet the 2030 target. On the campaign trail, Legault rarely mentions the impending deadline. 

His flagship environmental proposal is to ask Hydro-Québec to investigate the possibility of building another dam, which would supply the additional renewable energy the province needs to become carbon neutral by 2050.

Doubts about the viability of this plan were immediately raised by First Nations communities, who expressed concerns that flooding needed to build such a project would destroy important areas on their lands.

The Liberals have a similarly ambitious long-term plan. Leader Dominique Anglade wants the province to spend $100 billion by 2050 developing a green hydrogen industry.

While the technology looks promising — it would solve the problem of finding a carbon-free way of fuelling long-distance transportation, like ships and planes — it doesn't address the near-term issue of meeting the 2030 targets.

Carrot or stick? 

The Parti Québécois and Québec Solidaire plans are similar in many ways, in part because they coincidentally used the same firm to model their emission reduction plans.

Both parties have set similarly ambitious targets of reducing emissions by around 50 per cent by 2030, and both envision huge investments in public transit.

They share, in that sense, an acknowledgement that the near-term target can't be reached as long as commuting habits don't change significantly.

But in pursuing that goal an important difference emerges. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the PQ leader, has opted to focus on incentives to get Quebecers to abandon their cars.

Along with cheap public transit, car dealers would be forced to carry more electric vehicles on their lots. Tax credits for those who buy EVs would increase, too. It's all carrot, no stick.

"The mistake would be to add restrictions on people who have no other options," Plamondon said when he announced the proposal.

As with the CAQ's plan, there are concerns though that simply nudging consumers toward greener cars won't be enough to get enough fossil-fuel powered vehicles off the roads by 2030.

Québec Solidaire, on the other hand, is proposing both carrot and stick. Along with subsidizing electric vehicle purchases, they want to slap a 15 per cent tax on the purchase of SUVs and other heavy polluting vehicles (though exceptions would be made for large families, or people living in remote areas).

The party was pilloried on the campaign trail, particularly by the CAQ, for proposing an SUV tax. Legault's campaign argues such measures are too "radical" and "unrealistic," even if the goal is a "noble" one.

Many of Quebec's leading climate policy experts, though, have lauded the Québec Solidaire plan. They have long called for higher taxes on large leisure vehicles, for hikes to the gas tax and other forms of financial disincentives to driving. 

Not only is the stick needed, it needs to be big enough.

"The QS proposal is a step in the direction, but it's still too timid," Pierre-Olivier Pineau, chair of energy management at HEC Montréal, told the French- language newspaper 24 heures.

In other words, even the plan considered by some to be the most radical on offer, is still likely to leave Quebec short of its climate goals. For every timid step taken now, the greater the distance the next generation must travel.