The poll numbers, they are a-changin'

Reading this online? Sign up here to have the Ballot Brief newsletter delivered directly to your inbox.

If you don't like the political weather in Quebec, wait five minutes... or something like that.

As the thermometer dips from heat wave to fall fresh, it seems Quebecers may also be feeling a chill when it comes to Francois Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec.

Don't get us wrong, they're still in governing territory, but will the voters ultimately rain on Legault's parade?

It might be time to grab the parapluie. Here's what you need to know on day 28.

The Breakout 

By Éric Grenier, @EricGrenierCBC

And just like that, everything in this campaign changed.

François Legault and his Coalition Avenir Québec can no longer count on winning a majority government on election day. While his party is still on track to win the most seats — thanks to the lead he continues to hold among francophones — the CBC's Quebec Poll Tracker now shows he's more likely to fall short of the 63 seats required for a majority government than he is to clear the bar.

Have the Liberals and the Parti Québécois benefited? Not really. Both have seen a slight uptick in their support. Instead, it is Manon Massé's Québec Solidaire that is gaining steam as voters who want change weigh their options. The party could win new seats not only in Montreal, but elsewhere as well.

That has the potential to shake up the electoral map considerably. And if the Liberals and Parti Québécois begin to cash in on Legault's misfortunes, then the prospect of even a CAQ minority government could dim.

Quebecers haven't quite stuck to the script in provincial and federal election campaigns over the last few years. Why should 2018 be any different?

The Breakdown

• The narrowing race is bringing up all kinds of interesting questions. On Daybreak, Jean-François Lisée refused to speculate about whether the PQ would form an alliance to topple a potential Liberal minority government. He told host Mike Finnerty he's happy being the underdog and is still confident he can win. Read more

• François Legault took a day off after a difficult stretch on the campaign trail. But CAQ candidates were still on the hustings and laid out the party's proposal to tighten the rules around the use of legal marijuana. The party wants to raise the age limit from 18 to 21 — which would be highest in the country.
• Philippe Couillard continues to emphasize the labour shortage and the need for more immigrants to meet the demand. He visited a mining company in Val-d'Or that's searching for specialized workers this morning, after stopping by a Subway restaurant that had to cut its opening hours because of staffing problems.

The Mic

Hello, I'm interested in knowing where the parties stand on animal welfare... were there plans of banning the rodeo event in St-Tite? -Terry Baratta​

The Festival Western de St-Tite is a rodeo, held every year since 1967 in titular town, north of Trois-Rivières. It now attracts 600,000 visitors annually.

In a survey conducted by the Montreal SPCA, the Green Party said it would "gradually ban rodeos, circuses, zoos and aquariums." Québec Solidaire said that, if elected, it would make sure rodeos follow Quebec's animal welfare law.

The CAQ said it would allow rodeos to continue, while the PQ said it has no position on rodeos.

The Liberals did not respond to the SPCA questionnaire, but Philippe Couillard has publicly supported the St-Tite rodeo and made a campaign stop there two weeks ago. He praised the economic benefits of the event and said his party wouldn't shut it down.

The Pulse

Sovereignty may be off the table in this election (only Québec Solidaire would put the question to a referendum after public consultation in its first mandate), but voters are still concerned about protecting the French language.

In fact, 68 per cent would like the government to do more when it comes to French, according to the online questionnaire Vote Compass. Read more

There's no rainbow without the rain, they say. We'll all get there soon enough.

But in the meantime, batten down the hatches, because no one, it seems, is going down without a fight.

À la prochaine,

-Melinda Dalton, social media editor