Looser Winnipeg zoning rules proposed by mayor may not lead to housing boom, expert warns

A major housing regulation reform proposal from Winnipeg Mayor Scott Gilligham meant to secure millions in federal funding may not create the thousands of new homes the city needs, one expert warns.

The mayor's proposal would allow "as-of-right" construction of up to four units per lot citywide, four-storey buildings within 800 metres of "frequent" transit routes, and mid-rise rental construction around malls and commercial corridors. 

Gillingham announced the changes last week in response to a letter from federal Housing Minister Sean Fraser, setting out conditions for approving the City of Winnipeg's $192-million application to the housing accelerator fund.

"These are the type of things that look good on paper, but won't necessarily translate into the type of development that the federal, provincial or even municipalities are looking for," said Aaron Moore, a professor in the department of political science at the University of Winnipeg.

The City of Vancouver approved zoning changes allowing duplexes citywide in 2018. In the five years since, "there's been very little uptake in that," Moore said.

"The hope is that we'll get this type of development throughout the city, which would allow for the amount of units that are expected, and I don't think that's going to happen," he said.

"I think what you'll see is that large parts of the city will largely remain unaffected and then there will be certain areas that get a disproportionate amount of that type of development, but not in the number of units that are hoped for."

Housing needs

Gillingham says the money would fund the construction of 5,777 units over three years and lead to a total of 15,000 units of new housing over 10 years.

A 2020 comprehensive housing needs assessment report published by the University of Winnipeg's Institute of Urban Studies stated that Winnipeg needed to build 4,000 units per year for the next decade in order to meet the expected need.

The question of how the new rules would apply in areas designated as a heritage conservation district, like Crescentwood and Armstrong's Point, remains unclear. 

Last week, Gillingham told reporters those details had yet to be worked out.

St. James resident Kelly Ryback mapped out the areas 800 metres from Portage Avenue, which would likely be included in the zone around frequent transit routes.

"If you also include Ness Avenue as a frequent transit corridor, go another 800 meters north of Ness … that's the rest of the residential areas in Saint James, aside from Westwood," said Ryback, who ran for the St. James seat in last year's municipal election.

Ryback called the changes — which would eliminate the need for public hearings and re-zoning applications for fourplexes and four-storey apartments within the designated areas — "not democratic."

Councillors split over support

The proposal has already drawn opposition from at least one council member, while others have either said they will support it or have yet to take a position.

St. Vital Coun. Brian Mayes, chair of the city's water and waste committee, told CBC News he intends to vote against the zoning changes Gillingham plans to bring forward at the executive policy committee meeting on Nov. 14, unless specific changes are made.

He's concerned the proposal does not clearly define what counts as a frequent transit route, with no accompanying map showing what areas would be included within the 800-metre zone. There's also no guarantee the federal government will give the city the full $192 million it's asking for, he said.

Mayes expects the final vote at council, which would be held on Nov. 25, will be "very close."

Finance committee chair and North Kildonan Coun. Jeff Browaty declined to comment, saying he hadn't yet decided how he would vote.

At least two members of the mayor's inner circle have said they support the mayor's proposal.

"I've had a housing crisis in south Winnipeg for over 10 years," deputy mayor and public works chair Coun. Janice Lukes (Waverley West) said in a text message.

Lukes says she will vote for the motion will it comes, adding that she expects there will be limits placed on where the fourplexes can be built. 

Property and development committee chair Coun. Sherri Rollins (Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry) says Winnipeg has a shortage of certain types of housing.

"Winnipeg has high rents and we need more rental supply, and I know there is a direct correlation between rent increases and homelessness," she said.

"Fixing this as chair of property development is a priority for me. I can't get the number of units out the door unless things change."