Federal restrictions on immigration will reduce population growth in Winnipeg: economic outlook

New federal immigration restrictions are expected to hamper Winnipeg's population growth, according to a new economic outlook from the Conference Board of Canada.

The not-for-profit economic think tank projects the population of Manitoba's capital will grow by only one per cent in 2025. This would follow robust growth of 2.5 per cent in 2023 and expected growth at a similar rate this year.

One of the primary factors is a federal government decision to reduce immigration targets, a policy change intended to reduce the pressure on housing in more populous cities, such as Toronto and Vancouver.

The government announced last month it will cut the projected number of new permanent residents from 485,000 this year to 395,000 in 2025, with further cuts to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. Under the previous plan released last November, Canada was expected to admit about 500,000 in both 2025 and 2026.

"New federal government restrictions will lead to lower levels of net international migration," the Conference Board states in its Winnipeg outlook, published on Thursday.

That, coupled with Manitoba's chronic tendency to lose people to other provinces, will usher in an end to several years of robust population growth in Winnipeg, the Conference Board projects.

"Retaining newcomers has been a persistent challenge for Winnipeg over the past several decades. This trend is unlikely to change over the next few years, as many immigrants choose to relocate to cities with bigger labour markets and more attractions," the board states in its economic outlook.

In its annual publication of population estimates, published in August, Winnipeg's economic development and policy office estimated the city's population stood at approximately 836,250 as of July 1.

That same report predicted growth would slow in 2025. Tyler Kroeker, the city's economic analyst, said in a statement the Conference Board's projection is in line with what the city was expecting, mainly because fewer non-permanent residents are projected to arrive. 

Kroeker said one per cent growth remains significant, as it would result in an annual population increase of about 9,000 people in 2025.

That, he said, is much higher than the growth Winnipeg experienced during the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Kroeker said slower population growth won't affect the city's revenue projections.

But Walter Bolduc, an economist with the Conference Board, said it could still hamper the city's economy by reducing the pool of available labour.

He also said it could result in reduced taxation revenue for the province. Manitoba relies more heavily than the city on growth revenues, including the provincial sales tax.

CBC News requested comment from the province but did not receive a response that addressed the effect of reduced population growth on sales tax revenue.