A wind of change blowing through Point Douglas?
Newly released byelection poll results shows significant Liberal surge in the NDP stronghold
The June 13 byelection in Point Douglas delivered an 11th consecutive election victory for the Manitoba NDP in the inner-city Winnipeg constituency.
But while rookie candidate Bernadette Smith secured the victory, an unusually strong Liberal surge made ground in the neighbourhood at the expense of a struggling NDP.
Not only did Cacayuran capture 29 per cent of the popular vote (up from 19 per cent for the Liberals in the 2016 general election), but he also won eight of the 40 polling divisions — seven more than the Liberals took in 2016, and entirely at the expense of the NDP.
Christopher Adams, a political analyst at St. Paul's College at the University of Manitoba, said historically, Liberals tend to shine in byelections in this province.
"When you vote in a byelection, it's very different because you aren't choosing your premier," he said.
"People are more willing to experiment or vote less strategically than in a general election."
Adams said in general elections, voters tend to migrate toward a candidate that represents a party with a likelihood of having influence, rather than voting for their true preference.
"I think [these results are] a reflection of the damage the NDP has taken over the past few years," he said.
The Progressive Conservatives' share of the popular vote has remained steady in the constituency, at around 17 per cent for the last three elections, with most of their support coming from the most southern region of the neighbourhood, along Waterfront Drive.
Adams said the rise of up-scale condo developments in this area explains the consistent Conservative support.
"Here we're looking at demographics: people voting according to their socio-economic status, no surprise here."
