If re-elected as Winnipeg mayor, Brian Bowman would likely lose key loyalists: CBC analysis

Keen observers of the political interactions that take place at Winnipeg's city hall develop a good sense over time of where loyalties lie and how unofficial party lines are drawn.

But analyzing the voting patterns on the council floor provides a clearer window into the relationships between city councillors and the political manoeuvring at 510 Main St.

Unlike cities such as Edmonton and Toronto, where every council or committee vote is recorded electronically, for now Winnipeg only officially records how councillors vote on an issue if a request is made for a recorded vote.

Since the current council was formed following the October 2014 civic election, there have been 125 recorded votes.

Because recorded votes are generally requested for more controversial issues, only 17 of those votes were carried or defeated unanimously.

Here are the key takeaways from four years of voting behaviour:

A re-elected Bowman would lose his top loyalists

Mayor Brian Bowman officially announced in May that he will run for re-election in the fall. However, the voting records show that if victorious in October, he will likely lose three of his top four loyalists on council.

Marty Morantz (Charleswood-Tuxedo-Whyte Ridge) who would not return to city hall if he wins a federal Tory nomination, has voted 100 per cent of the time with Bowman over the course of his term.

• Couns. Pagtakhan, Wyatt will not seek re-election, Garth Steek to run again
• Jenny Gerbasi — Winnipeg's longest-serving councillor — won't seek 6th term

Jenny Gerbasi (Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry), the longest-serving member of council, and long-time Point Douglas councillor Mike Pagtakhan both voted alongside mayor Bowman 97 per cent of the time over four years.

They have both announced that they won't run again in October.

This chart shows how often (in percentages) each member of council voted the same way as fellow council members, out of a possible 125 recorded votes since the 2014 election. 

Browaty really didn't toe the EPC line

The first iteration of Bowman's executive policy committee — the de facto mayoral cabinet — included North Kildonan Coun. Jeff  Browaty and St. Norbert Coun. Janice Lukes.

After two years, both were eventually punted from the inner circle after voting against the controversial growth-fee plan.

But the numbers show Browaty was an unusually strong dissident for an EPC member long before that, supporting the mayor only 70 per cent of the time prior to the 2016 vote.

With the exception of Lukes, all other EPC members to date have voted with the mayor 94 per cent or more of the time.

Lukes made the biggest about-face in voting behaviour

The rookie St. Norbert councillor began her first year on council siding with the mayor on 100 per cent of votes. But the voting patterns show that more than anyone, Janice Lukes has withdrawn her support for Brian Bowman.

By her second year, her votes agreed with Bowman's 77 per cent of the time. By her third year, that dropped further to 52 per cent. Her support for the mayor has increased slightly so far in 2018, but there are still a handful of meetings before the term is over.

"I didn't get elected and I didn't run on the mayor's agenda. And when you're on EPC that really is the role, is to [support the mayor's agenda]," said Lukes.

"My preference under this current leadership is to be in the role that I am because it gives me freedom."

There are 3 swing voters

Former St. Boniface councillor turned federal member of Parliament Dan Vandal recalled the time in his early days at city hall when a veteran councillor, the late Bill Clement, told him bluntly "the name of the game is nine votes."

In order to win any votes among the 16-person council (15 councillors plus the mayor), nine votes are required. The last 125 recorded votes show that Mayor Bowman can generally rely on a voting block of eight councillors to support him, giving him an unofficial majority on council.

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However, there are issues on which he can't always count on this voting block to completely back him, nor can he rely on the unofficial opposition made up of Couns. Russ Wyatt, Jason Schreyer, Shawn Dobson and Ross Eadie to provide their support, since they have historically voted with the mayor less than 35 per cent of the time.

The remaining councillors — Lukes, Jeff Browaty and Speaker Devi Sharma — collectively sided with the mayor between 60 and 80 per cent of the time.

Vandal says that in order to gain support, councillors need to identify the likely swing voters for the issue and meet with them to ask for that support.

"You'd have to go see other councillors and say, 'I really need your help with this issue. This is why it's important to me,'" he said.

Being a council contrarian can pay off

In recent years, Russ Wyatt has developed a reputation as council's contrarian, often clashing with mayors over the past 16 years.

According to the recorded votes, Wyatt is the least likely person to vote along similar lines for 12 of the 15 other members of council.

The exception is Mynarski Coun. Ross Eadie, whose votes agree 79 per cent of the time with Wyatt.

Dan Vandal says that in his experience, some councillors — regardless of who is mayor — will always instinctively adopt the contrarian position on council.

"It happens pretty quickly. Just like a family, people take on certain roles," said Vandal.

Being a contrarian is also a very powerful strategy come election time, he added, pointing to former Mynarski councillor Harry Lazarenko, who held his seat for three decades.

"If you're seen out there fighting for your constituency on every second issue, people like that," he said. "It's easy to get [headlines] if you're against lots of stuff."

Past election results seem to support that theory. Some of the largest re-election victory margins have come from more polarizing council figures.

In 2006, Wyatt won re-election with a whopping 80 per cent margin over his second-place competitor. In 2010, the margin was 70 per cent and in 2014 more than 30 per cent.

Ross Eadie and Jenny Gerbasi, who have also often clashed with mayors, have won re-election victories with massive margins ranging from 40 to 60 per cent.

Notes about the data:

• The records used for this analysis were taken from the open democracy website Winnipeg Elected, which collaborates with the city clerk's office to make the records available in usable formats.
• Some minor errors were found in the disposition records on the city's website. Where possible, they were fixed by referring to the Hansard transcripts. It is possible other minor errors were not identified.
• Recorded votes represent only a subset of all votes that occur during council meetings, but they tend to represent the more consequential issues.