What's at stake for Manitoba in U.S. election? Quite a lot if Trump wins, experts say

Manitoba experts in the field of trade, immigration and tourism are weighing in on what the province stands to gain or lose amid what's shaping up to be a close presidential election south of the border.

Voters in the United States head to the polls on Tuesday to choose either Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Some say a Harris presidency would likely mean a continuation of current policies. But how would a second Trump presidency impact Canada — and more specifically, Manitoba?

Trade

Barry Prentice, director of the University of Manitoba's Transport Institute, says that under current Democratic President Joe Biden, Canada's trade relationship with the U.S. has been good, even if it's had its hiccups — including the continuation of a years-long dispute on softwood lumber that's been pursued by both Democratic and Republican administrations.

Winnipeg is "a major distribution point" for lumber, Prentice said, and the local transportation industry has been hurt by higher tariffs. But other than that, Prentice said, "most of our trade has been pretty open and free" under Biden.

However, there is still the dangling threat of country-of-origin rules, which would require meat, poultry and egg products to be labelled as "Product of USA" or "Made in the USA" only when derived from animals born, raised, slaughtered and processed in the U.S.

Last spring, the U.S. announced the rules will come into effect in 2026. Prentice said they're more likely to stick under Trump.

"That would certainly have a major impact on us here in Winnipeg or Manitoba," he said. "We send a lot of hogs, especially the small pigs to be fed."

Trump has also signalled he'll impose a 10-per-cent tariff for all imports to the country.

"Him saying this is a stretch. It's very contrary to the Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement [USMCA]. So that could be challenged under that agreement," Prentice said. 

"The thing I do remember about Donald Trump is that his bark is often worse than his bite. So even though he's saying all these things, when it comes down to doing it, it may not happen."

If it did go ahead, Prentice said the impact could be described in one word: "disaster."

"It wouldn't just affect Manitoba. It's 10 per cent for everywhere. Roughly 73 per cent of all of our exports go to the U.S. and those have grown quite a bit in the last four years, so it would be an impact here we'd feel," he said.

"We sell twice as much agricultural exports to the U.S. as we import from them, and that really determines a lot of the economic activity outside Winnipeg. Our food processing industry, for example, would be very exposed."

Those south of the border would feel the sting quite a bit as well, Prentice says.

"It's going to increase the prices in the U.S. and … cause a lot of inflation."

Another big problem could be retaliation by Canada, Prentice says.

"[We] might also turn around to decide … we're going to raise tariffs on things that we buy from the U.S., so that could increase prices for consumers and just generally reduce trade, which is bad for the economy in general."

If a tariff were to be imposed and challenged, it would have to go to a tribunal. And that would take time to be resolved, Prentice said.

"It may eventually then be reversed, but there would be a hurt right away," he said.

Migration

Trump has said he plans to deport all the millions of undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. if he is re-elected to the White House.

Lori Wilkinson, a University of Manitoba sociologist and Canadian Research chair of migration futures, says such a large-scale crack-down is not feasible.

"Multiple economic think tanks and researchers in the U.S. have come up with the cost estimate, so if you were to do all of the deportations all at once, it would be $163 billion. That's with a 'B,'" Wilkinson said.

"The gross domestic product of the U.S. would be cut by between 4.2 and 6.8 per cent due to the number of people who are not working … even if cost wasn't an issue."

Trump's planned crackdown might drive up the number of illegal crossings to Canada. Authorities on both sides of the Manitoba border have warned the number of asylum claimant interceptions in the province has steadly crept up after plunging from 1,018 in 2017 — Trump's first year in office — to 19 in 2021.

There were 77 RCMP interceptions in Manitoba last year, according to the federal government.

Wilkinson says any legal barrier will just lead to people facing humanitarian crises in their home countries to look for increasingly riskier ways to find safety.

"We can put up all the walls we want … but it doesn't stop the reasons why people have to migrate," she said.

"I think Canada also needs to recognize we're in the 21st century and that we are increasingly going to be having people … either walking across our border, or show up on a boat or show up in an airplane, who have a documented right to be here."

Tourism

Looking back at Trump's first presidency, the impact it had on Canadians heading south was negligible as a whole, said Max Johnson, a tourism consultant based in Winnipeg.

However, there were some ripples.

"As tempers started fraying" in the southern states, more people seeking some sunshine during the winter months tended to venture a little bit further and chose Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean instead, Johnson said.

As for what could happen under a second Trump administration, the biggest potential issue comes from any tightening in immigration and security rules, he says.

"Canadians are the only people in the world at the moment that don't need a visa to travel to the U.S.," he said."If the Americans decide that their security and immigration needs Canadians to fall in line with the rest of the world, that could present some issues."

Even the current Biden administration is troubled by the number of immigrants coming into Canada, particularly from the Middle East, who become citizens and then enter the U.S. without visas, Johnson says.

"The Americans are already saying, 'Look Canada, you're giving passports a little bit more indiscriminately than we would like. And we might have to put the same filter in that we do for every other country in the world,'" he said.

"That I can see happening, which would of course affect southbound travel tremendously."