Swing city: Winnipeg ridings likely to mirror national election results, analysts say
5 of 8 Conservative seats in Winnipeg expected to be tight races, analysts say
The Conservatives are in a tight fight in five of eight Winnipeg seats, analysts say, and the result in these ridings will likely reflect the national result in Monday's federal election.
"This is the most remarkable election we've seen in Winnipeg for many years," political scientist Chris Adams said.
Manitoba is an indicator of what happens in the rest of the country- Curtis Brown, Probe Research Inc.
Liberal Leader, Justin Trudeau, has his sights set on Winnipeg. He used his final Saturday of the campaign to stage a rally in the city. That's his third visit to the River City during this campaign, more than any other party leader. Conservative Stephen Harper and NDP Tom Mulcair have both been to Winnipeg twice during the campaign.
Heading into the election, Manitoba's 14 seats looked like this:
- 11 Conservative.
- Two NDP.
- One Liberal.
Adams has his eye on three ridings in particular: Winnipeg South Centre, Winnipeg South and St. Boniface - St.Vital.
"[Those three ridings] often swing with where the government is going," Adams said.
Hottest race in the province
Manitoba pollster Curtis Brown said Winnipeg South Centre is the hottest race in the province in this election.
In 2011, when the Conservatives swept to power with a majority government, Winnipeg South Centre switched hands from Liberal red to Tory blue.
Conservative Joyce Bateman beat a Liberal incumbent last time.
"Joyce Bateman still has a lot of support and with the redrawn boundary, that gives her a leg up," said Brown.
The boundary redistribution widened the riding to include the traditionally Conservative neighbourhood Lindenwoods. In 2011, the Conservatives did not lose a single poll in Lindenwoods.
Liberal Jim Carr is the founding president of the Manitoba Business Council and has been campaigning aggressively since Spring 2014.
"I think that's going to be pretty tight," Brown said. "Winnipeg South Centre is probably the one that we should have our eyes on the most."
New Democrat Matt Henderson and Green Andrew Park are also vying for the seat.
With 11,205 votes cast, Winnipeg South Centre also saw the highest voter turnout in the province in advance polling, an indication voters there are eager.
Speaking more widely about the city-wide picture, Brown said the Liberals could luck out on election day.
"[The Liberals] have gotten a few breaks. If the NDP were more buoyed nationally and the provincial brand wasn't dragging them down a little bit, the Liberals would have a lot of difficulty winning any of those seats, to be perfectly blunt about it," Brown said.
He expects whichever way the rest of Canada votes, will likely be reflected in some of those critical Manitoba seats.
"In many elections, Manitoba is an indicator of what happens in the rest of the country," Brown said.
Unique dynamics at play in Elmwood-Transcona
Elmwood-Transcona was one of the tightest races in 2011 and is expected to be again, but not between the Liberals and the Tories, political analysts say.
Conservative incumbent Lawrence Toet is fighting off New Democrat dynasty candidate Daniel Blaikie. His father held the seat for almost three decades. Liberal Andrea Richardson-Lipon and Green Kim Parke are also fighting for the seat.
"The dynamics are different, but I think Elmwood is going to be very hard fought because that is a traditionally New Democrat riding," Brown said.
Heading into this election, the New Democrats held two of Manitoba's 14 seats, Winnipeg Centre (Pat Martin) and Churchill-Keewatinook Aski (Niki Ashton).
Tory MPs step down, clearing field for tight battle
Another interesting dynamic in this election is the loss of three incumbents from the governing Conservatives: Rod Bruinooge (Winnipeg South), Joy Smith (Kildonan-St. Paul), and Shelly Glover (St. Boniface), are not running again.
"That has left a few key ridings for an open battle," political scientist Chris Adams said.
The Tories hold five of six rural Manitoba seats. Pollster Curtis Brown with Probe Research Inc. expects them all to stay in Conservative hands.
"All things being equal unless there's some sort of massive, massive shift those should be pretty Conservative," Brown said.