Manitobans split on landfill search for remains of Indigenous women, poll suggests
More than half of women in favour of search versus about one-third of men, poll shows
A new poll suggests Manitobans are split on whether to search a landfill for remains of two Indigenous women — with majorities of men, people over 55 and those living outside of Winnipeg opposed, compared to majorities of women, Winnipeggers and those under 55 in support.
A Probe Research poll commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV this week suggests 47 per cent of respondents were in favour of searching Prairie Green landfill, compared to 45 per cent who were opposed. The remaining eight per cent were undecided.
The divisions show up along party lines as well as age, race, education levels, sexual identity and gender: more than half of women (57 per cent) are in favour of a search versus about one-third of men (36 per cent). That general theme held across age groups, with women considerably more in favour than men.
Police believe the remains of Marcedes Myran and Morgan Harris, both victims of the same alleged serial killer, were dumped at Prairie Green north of Winnipeg last year.
A feasibility study out this year estimated a search could cost between $84 million and $184 million and could take between one to three years. Report authors stipulated environmental and other risks to searchers could be mitigated with the right safety protocols.
'A hard issue for Manitobans'
The poll arrives a week ahead of the provincial election on Oct. 3.
Kelly Saunders, professor of political science at Brandon University, says she wasn't surprised by the poll results.
"This is a divisive issue … I think it's a hard issue for Manitobans to try to wrap their minds around," she told host Faith Fundal during an interview with CBC Radio's Up to Speed on Tuesday.
PC Leader Heather Stefanson previously came out against searching the landfill during her time as premier, citing health and safety reasons.
The PCs have increasingly leaned into that party stance in the final days of the campaign, taking out a full-page ad in the Winnipeg Free Press this past weekend with the term "stand firm" next to an image of Stefanson and text reading "the landfill dig just has to be a no."
The PCs' message may resonate with some of the party's base, according to the latest Probe poll. PC supporters expressed the lowest support for searching of three parties, at 18 per cent, compared to half of Liberal supporters.
Those who expressed the highest degree of support were NDP voters, at 72 per cent.
Saunders says attack ads pop up routinely during the final stretch before an election, but the one the PCs released over the weekend spells desperation and she's not convinced it will work.
"They're making it an election issue, and usually when parties do that, it's because they really think they can get some ground on it in terms of getting votes," she said.
"I'm not sure where they're going to be able to get more votes from on this issue, so why they are staking ground on it — when it doesn't really seem like it's going to pay off for them politically — is the big question for me."
Saunders moderated a leaders' debate in Brandon earlier on Tuesday, and says the final days of an election campaign are critical.
"You can feel that tension. I could certainly feel that tension at the leaders' debate. Nothing is a done deal and the parties are really scrambling to try to either hold [or regain] momentum."
Another Probe Research poll out last week suggested the NDP were ahead by 11 percentage points, up from the six-percentage-point lead that emerged in an Angus Reid poll one day earlier.
The latter also suggested men and women had a more favourable outlook of NDP Leader Wab Kinew than PC Leader Heather Stefanson.
The latest Probe Research poll shows roughly the same ratio of participants between the ages of 18-34 and 35-54 want a search of Prairie Green, at 54 per cent and 53 per cent support, respectively. Meanwhile, people 55 and up were 37 per cent in favour.
Along racial lines, nearly two-thirds of Indigenous people (60 per cent) expressed support. Other people of colour and white people showed the same degree of support, at 46 per cent.
Réal Carrière, assistant professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says the PCs' landfill ad ignores the human aspect of the issue.
"They don't think of the intergenerational trauma, the legacy of colonialism, the impact of violence against missing and murdered Indigenous women and girls. And it is a hard thing to think beyond your privilege."
Carrière questioned whether the "stand firm" rhetoric and deliberate focus on not searching a landfill could cost the PCs votes among undecided voters looking to latch onto a party pushing a "strong message."
"I don't think it was a good strategy, because it doesn't say a lot about the keystone issues. It doesn't give me an idea about what this new government [is] going to be about," Carrière said.
"Standing firm … every party can make that claim, that being a political leader is difficult and you have to make decisions that are challenging and maybe that you don't always agree [with]."
University graduates (56 per cent) had higher rates of support for a landfill search than people with only some post-secondary schooling (43 per cent) or people with high school education or less (40 per cent).
Members of the 2SLGBTQIA community were 72 per cent in favour while people with disabilities were 59 per cent.
One of the only groups without much difference in support levels was on the income front. Those making $100,000 or more were 45 per cent in support; 51 per cent of those who earn between $50,000 and $99,000 were in favour of a search; and half (50 per cent) of people who make $50,000 or less were pro-searching.
The Probe poll was a provincewide, mixed-methodology telephone survey of 1,000 adults via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and live-agent operator. It took place between Sept. 7 and 18.
For comparison purposes only, a randomized sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
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With files from Brittany Greenslade and Faith Fundal