Manitoba Tories still on top but support slipping, poll suggests

A new poll suggests support for the Progressive Conservatives could be slipping, particularly among lower-income Manitobans and Winnipeggers, although the PCs remain the most popular party in the province.

The poll was conducted by Probe Research and commissioned by the Winnipeg Free Press.

It asked respondents who they would vote for if an election were held that day.

The PCs have the support of 42 per cent of poll respondents, more than any other party. That number is 12 percentage points ahead of the NDP, but 11 points lower than what the PCs enjoyed after the 2016 election.

"They were at 53 per cent on election day — it really was extraordinary," said Mary Agnes Welch, a research associate with Probe Research. "Since then they've generally been on the down-swing."

The poll was conducted in the aftermath of the Pallister government's planned closure of several emergency rooms and urgent care centres in the province.

"I was a little surprised that the number didn't drop a little more," Welch said. "Manitobans are generally upset about or concerned about the ER closures, but I'm not sure we're really seeing that reflected in those numbers."

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Since December, PC support among households earning less than $30,000 has dropped 15 points to 40 per cent, while support for the NDP more than doubled from 14 per cent to 31 per cent, the poll suggests.

Support is evenly split among women, with 35 per cent supporting the PCs and 33 per cent supporting the NDP in the poll.

The governing party and the Opposition are also deadlocked in Winnipeg, with 31 per cent supporting the PCs and 34 per cent supporting the NDP. Support for the PCs among Winnipeggers fell 10 points, while support for the NDP rose nine points.

Welch said the clear battleground in Manitoba politics right now is for second place. The Manitoba NDP and Liberal parties are still in the midst of rebuilding phases, Welch says, and the Progressive Conservatives are still "in a bit of a sweet spot."

"I do think we are in this funny limbo period, where the Tories are doing some unpopular things early in their mandate, both the Liberals and the NDP don't have a leader, so it remains to be seen how much a new leader of either of those parties can kind of capitlize on any frustration voters might have for the Tories," Welch said.

"If they [the Tories] can just keep at the 40 per cent mark while the other two parties duke it out, they can get a lot done before they have to go again before the voters."

The poll was conducted via telephone interviews with 1,000 Manitoba adults between June 6 and June 18. The results are considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.