Finance Minister Fielding, former MP Glover mull runs to replace Pallister as Tory leader, premier

Five sitting cabinet ministers, a high-profile city councillor and a former member of parliament are among the potential candidates in the race to replace Brian Pallister as Manitoba's Progressive Conservative Party leader — and premier, by extension.

On Tuesday, Pallister announced his intention to step down as premier. A PC leadership race is expected this fall, after the party determines how the race will be run.

That in itself is expected to take the better part of two weeks.

"There's obviously decisions the party has to make in terms of the process and how soon that will unfold. But I know we've got a lot of quality people that have been members of the party," Education Minister Cliff Cullen said in Brandon Wednesday.

"I think we'll get some great people step up for this new role."

Some of the people are expected to be existing members of the PC cabinet. This presents an opportunity for the opposition New Democratic Party, which has spent the past two days trying to paint every member of the Tory caucus as a supporter of the unpopular outgoing premier.

"Everyone who's at the cabinet, everyone who's at the caucus today is a follower of Brian Pallister," NDP Leader Wab Kinew said Wednesday at a press conference.

"We've seen that time and time again as they've stood by his offensive commentary, as they voted in favour of his damaging legislative agenda."

Here are some of the declared and potential leadership candidates, based on more than a dozen conversations with party members, political scientists, pollsters and political observers.

Scott Fielding

Manitoba's finance minister is the first to declare his interest in succeeding Pallister. On Wednesday, Fielding said he will consult with his family and then make a decision about running within the next 10 days.

Fielding said he is in a strong position to lead the Progressive Conservatives to victory against the NDP, noting he was able to balance Manitoba's books as finance minister in 2020, right before the COVID-19 pandemic placed the province in deficit territory.

Fielding also noted he's been elected four times since 2006 — twice each to city council and to the Manitoba Legislature.

"The elections are going to be decided in the City of Winnipeg for the most part, and I think that I've got a lot of experience at winning in some of these seats that we really need to win to win the next election," Fielding said in an interview.

Fielding, however, has never uttered any public criticism of Pallister and — like the outgoing premier — has clashed with Winnipeg Mayor Brian Bowman.

He would appeal most to hawkish fiscal conservatives within the PC caucus.

Shelly Glover

Former Conservative MP and retired Winnipeg police officer Shelly Glover is also mulling a run for premier.

Glover, who served two terms as a member of Stephen Harper's cabinet, said she is considering a run even though she thinks she may be able to accomplish more behind the scenes than as an elected official.

"I have received so many phone calls," Glover said in an interview. "I cannot rule it out."

Glover said she is motivated to help Manitoba seniors after COVID-19 decimated personal care homes in Manitoba during the pandemic's second wave.

Heather Stefanson

Manitoba's health minister has long had leadership ambitions and made it clear earlier this year she would consider a run for premier if Pallister stepped down.

"I'll wait for that opportunity if and when it becomes available," she said during an interview in January.

Stefanson wields influence within the party. If she throws her hat into the ring, she is expected to enjoy the support of several members of caucus, both inside and outside Winnipeg.

The knock against her would be the target she could provide the NDP: She served as health minister during the third wave of the pandemic, when Manitoba hospitals failed so badly to manage the COVID-19 caseload, 57 intensive-care patients had to be sent to hospitals in other provinces.

Stefanson did not respond to a request for comment Wednesday.

Scott Gillingham

City council's finance chair is a moderate Tory who is allied closely with Mayor Bowman at city hall. He has spoken out strongly against Bill 64, which would do away with school boards.

Like Stefanson, Scott Gillingham would have an organization ready to wage a leadership campaign. He has long had leadership ambitions at both the municipal and provincial level and now must decide whether to run for premier this fall or run to succeed Bowman in the next mayoral race.

Gillingham is almost the precise opposite of Pallister in character in that he is soft-spoken and unflamboyant. 

The councillor's office declined a request for comment on Wednesday.

Rochelle Squires

As recently as two years ago, Families Minister Rochelle Squires appeared to be Pallister's heir apparent. During the 2019 provincial election campaign, she stood at his immediate side at many events.

Squires has a compelling backstory: She was a single mother as a young adult and worked as a reporter before seeking public office. 

She may have extra motivation to enter the PC leadership race: As premier, she would be more immune from NDP efforts to defeat her in Riel, a fickle constituency that has swung  between the two parties four times over the past 40 years.

Squires declined to comment Wednesday.

Other sitting Tory MLAs

Jeff Wharton, the minister of Crown Services, and Education Minister Cullen are also both expected to consider leadership runs. Both remained loyal to Pallister prior to the premier's departure announcement.

On Wednesday, Cullen said it is too soon to say whether he is interested. CBC News did not reach Wharton.

McPhillips MLA Shannon Martin, who has criticized Pallister on social media, is a potential backbench candidate for the premier's office.

It's also possible a relative unknown for the large rural caucus could make the leap to premier. If rural delegates vote as a bloc during a leadership campaign, it is possible they could elect one of their own — or play kingmaker in a crowded field of candidates.

James Bezan

Like Gillingham, six-term federal Conservative MP James Bezan may be an attractive outside candidate for the PCs. He has decades of political experience but is not tarnished with any association to Pallister.

As an affable populist, Bezan resembles former NDP premier Gary Doer in character, but not in ideology.

Bezan's opposition to a federal Liberal effort to ban conversion therapy could harm him in Winnipeg, where fiscal conservatives outnumber social conservatives among the PC membership.

He may not be able to run at all if a federal election is called next week.

A spokesperson said he is "focused on winning the next federal election and serving in Erin O'Toole's government."