Manitoba must jolt electric vehicles sales, cut emissions significantly to hit net-zero: consultant
Environmental firm tells province it must pursue electrification
Manitoba needs to turn passenger vehicles electric and significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions if the province wants to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, an environmental firm says.
The province hired Montreal-based Dunsky Energy and Climate Advisors to devise a new energy policy framework.
As part of that effort, the firm detailed what Manitoba must do to meet the federal government's net zero emissions target by 2050 at the lowest cost.
It calls for "significant emissions reductions in all sectors, driven largely by electrification, made possible by an increase in renewable electricity," according to a document Dunsky prepared for a stakeholder meeting last month. The NDP obtained a copy and tabled it Wednesday during question period.
Net-zero is reached when all the greenhouse gas emissions produced are offset by emissions removed from the atmosphere.
Remaking the vehicles on the road
To hit that target, the environmental firm suggests all cars, passenger trucks, SUVs and light- and medium-duty trucks become electric, along with relying on hydrogen and biofuels to fuel most buses and heavy-duty vehicles.
The federal government has set a 2035 target for every new light-duty vehicle sold in Canada to produce zero emissions.
Dunsky is suggesting the electrification of 87 per cent of heating systems for buildings, with a focus on geothermal. In turn, the share of natural gas systems used to heat buildings would be cut by 43 per cent.
It recommends a 66 per cent increase in clean electricity generation, such as wind power and biomass.
And Dunsky suggests Manitoba can also counteract some carbon emissions by generating bioenergy through carbon capture and storage, as well as direct air capture.
The firm stressed its modelling is not a forecast, but a "portrait, using best available knowledge as of 2021, of the changes required" to achieve net zero.
It also says if Manitoba continues down its current path, its emissions will continue to increase over the next three decades at least.
The Progressive Conservative government has been trying to cut emissions by a cumulative one megatonne between 2018 and 2022. The reduction target over the five-year period is 4.4 per cent of the 22.6 megatonnes Manitoba emitted in 2019 alone.
NDP environment critic Lisa Naylor points out the measures described by Dunsky have not been adopted by the province. Dunsky is soliciting public feedback before it recommends options for Manitoba's new energy policy framework.
"I'm glad that this government is doing some engagement to try to figure out a better path, but these ideas are not part of the current Climate and Green Plan, they're not part of what they've been doing for the last six years," Naylor said.
"I need to see some action to know that there's actually going to be any change in this province."
Jeff Wharton , minister of environment, climate and parks, said Dunsky would provide his department with a draft report of its findings in the coming weeks. He was not privy to all details in the leaked report, he said.
"Just over 30 days on the job [as environment minister], I've seen some great information pointing that we are looking at doing things that are going to make a difference, moving forward collaboratively, again, with the federal government as we work together toward moving Canada, and basically Manitoba, as leaders when it comes to emission reductions."
Dunsky's report also recommends Manitoba offer incentives for people to buy electric vehicles, help electrify buildings through the use of incentives and develop a provincial carbon pricing plan.
