NDP lead over PCs in Manitoba shrinks in latest Probe Research poll
Gap between 2 parties narrowed in March to 6 percentage points, down from 11 in December
The popular-opinion gap between Manitoba New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives narrowed earlier this month, according to a new Probe Research poll that gives the Opposition NDP a diminished lead over the governing Tories.
The Winnipeg Free Press-commissioned poll of 1,000 Manitoba adults, conducted from March 8 to 20, suggests Wab Kinew's NDP enjoys the support of 44 per cent of Manitobans, down two percentage points from 46 per cent in December.
The poll suggests Premier Heather Stefanson's PCs are the preferred party for 38 per cent of Manitobans, up from 35 per cent in December.
The gap between the two parties is now six percentage points, down from 11 in December. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points and an accuracy of 95 per cent, Probe Research says.
Probe president Scott MacKay said while the bump for the PCs is within the margin of error, it could represent something more.
"To be statistically fair, it is all within the margin of error at this point. But we do see what could very well be a trend because it's happening on both ends," MacKay said in an interview Tuesday in Probe's downtown Winnipeg office.
"The NDP is getting a little bit weaker since our last poll and the Conservatives seem to be picking that up.
"What was 11 points is now six, and this is a much closer race than we've seen in a while."
Budget may be a factor
MacKay said the poll result could be a sign Manitobans are responding positively to the provincial budget the Tories presented on March 7.
That budget calls for tax relief and public spending increases across the board. More importantly, MacKay said, the PCs have made numerous announcements about their spending plans since budget day.
"It doesn't really surprise me since they've been able to really hold the agenda for a while," he said.
In a statement, Stefanson said the poll shows the more Manitobans get to know the premier and the PCs, the more they will see themselves reflected in the party's policies.
Speaking in Brandon, NDP Leader Wab Kinew said Manitobans already know the Tories well and ought to vote for his party this fall if they want to see change.
The poll also suggested the Manitoba Liberals are supported by nine per cent of Manitoba adults, down from 13 per cent in December.
This bodes poorly for the PCs, as the Liberals mainly tend to take votes away from the New Democrats, said Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba.
"The Liberals are doing very poorly in the numbers and for the PCs to win an election against the NDP, they need the Liberals to be a little bit stronger," Adams said Tuesday in his office at the university's Fort Garry campus.
"A lot of people on the centre-left are moving completely over to the NDP, which means that's not good news for for the PCs."
Other parties in single digits
Support for the Green Party rose to four per cent, up from three per cent in December, while support for other parties, which now include the right-of-centre Keystone Party, rose to four per cent from two per cent.
Adams said Keystone does not have to draw many votes away from the PCs to affect an election result in rural constituencies where the Tories will end up in close races with the NDP.
"If it's a tough battle between the NDP and the PCs, then that might be enough to flip a couple of seats for the NDP," he said.
The poll also suggested the PCs continue to enjoy more support from men and Manitobans outside Winnipeg, while the NDP are more popular among women and people in Winnipeg.
While the poll's margin of error is higher for these subsamples, MacKay said he's never seen the gender split between the parties tilt so heavily.
This bodes well for the NDP, as the PCs were able to achieve large majorities with the help of support from women in 2016 and 2019, he noted.
"The gap between men and women has never been as strong as we've seen it today. So the job of the NDP is to make sure those women come out and vote and remain interested in their party," MacKay said.
The poll was conducted nearly seven months before Manitobans are expected to vote in the next provincial election, currently scheduled for Oct. 3.
