Despite successes in B.C. and P.E.I., it's still not easy being Green

The big byelection win for the federal Green Party on the West Coast this week has led to all sorts of speculation — some of it reasoned, some of it wishful thinking — that the Greens are about to make more inroads into Canadian politics at both the national and provincial levels.

Paul Manly's decisive victory in the B.C riding of Nanaimo-Ladysmith has emboldened the Greens as they prepare for a federal election in October.

It's also spooked the hell out of the Liberals and NDP, who stand to lose ground on the coast and in other progressive areas of Canada if the Vancouver Island vote proves to be the bleeding edge of a trend, and not just some anomaly, unique to the sometimes wacky Land of Never Winter.

The Greens' victory in the federal byelection arrived a couple of weeks after the Prince Edward Island edition of the party won enough votes to serve as the Official Opposition in Canada's smallest province. Any elation about that feat, however, is tempered by the fact some pollsters predicted the Greens would win the P.E.I. election.

Add in the situation in the B.C. provincial legislature, where three Green MLAs both prop up and influence the policy-making of the minority NDP government, and Greens are now wielding more political power in Canada than they ever have before.

More power, however, still isn't a lot of power when you consider how little influence the Greens have wielded over the past two decades in Canada.

Outsider status

The Greens now have two federal MPs, but that's not exactly a major feat for party leader Elizabeth May, who was first elected in 2011 and has served as public face of the party since she took over from Jim Harris in 2006. 

For context, Preston Manning founded the Reform Party of Canada in 1987. Six years later, Reform won 52 seats in the 1993 federal election.

Yes, comparing the Reformers of the 1990s to the Greens today is like comparing apples and rainbow cuttlefish. But the rhetoric espoused by Green Party leaders right now is vaguely similar: the Greens claim they're the only genuine alternative to Canada's mainstream political parties, while proudly proclaiming status as outsiders.

"We are the upstart, mom-and-pop organic grocery store that's competing with Walmart, Safeway and Superstore," Manitoba Green Party Leader James Beddome said in an interview this week.

Voters across Canada, he opined, are looking for an alternative to the Liberals, Tories and NDP — and no longer see a vote for a Green candidate as a wasted vote.

"There's sort of an interest in breaking down the traditional, old-line parties and those shakeups are healthy. I think the Greens are going to be a part of that."

Beddome said he believes a larger group of Green MPs could hold the balance of power in a minority government. He also argues the Greens have more credibility when it comes to climate change than the pipeline-purchasing Liberals, carbon tax-opposing Tories or labour-focused NDP.

Still, the prospects of a Green breakthrough in every region of Canada remain daunting.

According to Elections Canada, the federal Green Party has raised a scant $42,400 in Manitoba since Jan. 1, 2018. But that figure does not include funds that could be transferred to this province from the national office.

In Manitoba, the party is organizing for the October federal election. Manitoba organizer Drew Fenwick said the Greens have lined up candidates in 12 out of 14 ridings in the province so far, but are not ready to go public with the slate.

Beddome planned to run federally in Winnipeg South Centre, where he would have had to take out Liberal MP and senior Manitoba cabinet minister Jim Carr.

But that's up in the air while Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister plays coy about an early provincial election call, which would require Beddome to take another stab at becoming an MLA.

"The premier has made my life difficult," Beddome quipped, adding he would run provincially in one of two constituencies but is not ready to say which one, as of yet.

"We have plans in the works for any of the scenarios that play out."

'Wolseley is our seat to lose'

Beddome said his party has raised about $65,000 for the next election, where he said he expects the Greens to finally win a seat in the Manitoba Legislature.

The party came close in 2016, when Green candidate Dave Nickarz finished second to NDP incumbent Rob Altemeyer, losing by just 392 votes in Wolseley.

Altemeyer isn't running again in the next provincial election.

"Wolseley is our seat to lose in the next provincial election. We're coming in there as a frontrunner in a lot of ways in the next race, with Dave and no incumbency," Beddome said.

"Dave does have the best opportunity of any provincial Green."

The Manitoba NDP, which will nominate a Wolseley candidate on Tuesday, claims to be unconcerned about any momentum for the Green Party.

"When I look around at what's happened in other jurisdictions, I don't think the results translate to Manitoba," NDP Leader Wab Kinew said in an interview, citing his own party's environmental and progressive credentials.

Kinew said the Greens "are still dreaming of forming party status" while his party is the only one capable of defeating Pallister and the Manitoba Tories.

At the same time, he conceded some concern about Green votes elsewhere in Canada.

"The lesson I take out of it is if you vote Green, you get a conservative government," Kinew said.

This dynamic may be of far greater concern to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose Liberals are trying to hold on to power in October, than it is to Kinew, who would still have a mountain to climb in the next provincial election even if the Green Party did not exist.

But there's no question even a few more percentage points in favour of the Greens would alter election dynamics at both the provincial and federal levels.

It's more than plausible Green parties are about to wield more influence, if not power.