Manitoba eyes situation south of border as it prepares for forecast flooding

People in Winnipeg started stocking up on sandbags on Monday, on the first day the city made them available for those expecting or experiencing overland flooding.

For Gino Mallari, it was the first time seeing the spring snow melt as the recent owner of a new house.

"There is a big pool at our back lane and I'm worried that it's gonna get into the garage. So [I'm] hoping to, you know, prevent the water from coming into my backyard," Mallari said as he picked up some sandbags, adding that he's expecting that pool to get even bigger as the snow continues to melt.

Carl Bacasmas said right now, he only plans to make one trip for sandbags to put in his backyard, driveway and around his house. But that could change depending on how quickly the rest of the snow melts.

"I'm afraid that there's gonna be [a] flood," Bacasmas said.

The City of Winnipeg is making sandbags available to residents at 960 Thomas Ave., and has also posted tips online for how to keep basements dry during the spring melt.

In a bulletin issued last month, Manitoba's Hydrologic Forecast Centre raised the flood risk for the Red River from moderate to major, thanks to major snowstorms in recent weeks south of the U.S. border.

In an emailed statement on Monday, a provincial government spokesperson said the province is updating its projections based on the more recent snowfall and current melting conditions.

If there are any significant changes to the current outlook, which the spokesperson said has already factored in melting, another will be issued, the email stated.

Officials in the U.S. say they're concerned a late melt could affect the flood forecast there — outcomes that also affect the situation north of the border.

Threat of rain

Amanda Lee, a service hydrologist at the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, N.D., said by this time of year the snow melt is usually already done south of the border.

The longer that melt takes, she said, the bigger the effect it could have on the flood forecast.

"The further we get into April and into May, the chances for rainfall or even storms increases just due to the time of year," Lee said.

"So our threat for rain on top of flooding and on top of snow melt is increasing each day as we move forward, just because it's so late in the season."

The weather service said it already expects many locations along the Red River in that region to get into the major flood category.

Lee said the ideal scenario is to see a slow rise in daytime temperatures and low precipitation levels over the next two to three weeks.

200K sandbags in Fargo area

In Fargo, N.D., Mayor Tim Mahoney told residents they'll need to help build about 200,000 sandbags over the coming week to ensure the area is ready for any possible flood outcome. 

The bulk of those bags — 115,000 — are for the county, while 80,000 will be for Fargo itself and 5,000 will go to the nearby city of West Fargo, he said.

"I think we've had some wonderful news happen over the last several days. When Easter came, the sun came out, everybody was happy — and what happened with that was the melting," Mahoney said, as he put on a fluorescent vest during a Monday news conference that was streamed live on Facebook.

"Well, that's great, but guess what's happening? We're going to have a flood again this spring. And with a flood comes my vest and comes sandbags."

Mahoney said while the upcoming flood could be in the top 10 for Fargo, it could also be one that "comes and does not quite get to the height we'd like it not to get."

But the city needs to be prepared for either outcome, he said.

No huge change expected: expert

Jay Doering, a University of Manitoba civil engineering professor, said the snowpack on the U.S. side of the border is above normal. And with 85 per cent of the Red River's watershed on that side, what happens over there is likely to affect the flood situation in Manitoba.

But as of right now, Doering said he doesn't expect to see a significant shift from Manitoba's last flood forecast in March, when the province said the river was expected to spill its banks in several places in Manitoba this spring but not projected to rise high enough to threaten any communities protected by ring dikes.

"I might expect to see that there's been some increase in the expected water levels, but I'm not expecting to see a significant increase," Doering said.

"It's really just a question of how far east and west it ultimately goes."