Party goals and platitudes: What the leaders say about their election-night chances vs. how well they could do

On the cusp of election day, all four of Manitoba's mainstream parties have entirely different goals.

The Progressive Conservatives are trying to retain one of the largest seat pluralities ever in this province. 

The New Democrats intend to whittle away at that Tory majority and win back some seats in Winnipeg and the north.

The Liberals are trying to enlarge their footprint in the Manitoba Legislature from a four-seat toehold.

And the Greens are still endeavouring to win a single seat.

While these are the practical aims for all four parties, not all the leaders are candid about their aims.

The Tories, for example, could lose a pile of seats on Tuesday night and still wind up with a comfortable majority. But instead of playing it safe and offering little in the way of promises, the party made announcements almost every day during the August portion of the campaign and dropped an $830-million-a-year education-tax bombshell after Labour Day.

PCs could deal another crushing blow

PC Leader Brian Pallister, one of the more competitive characters in Manitoba political history, has been campaigning as if he wants to match his party's 40-seat achievement in the 2016 election and prevent the NDP from clawing its way out of the hole it found itself in that spring.

Pallister, however, denies a PC victory is synonymous with another crushing NDP defeat.

"It's not about crushing the competition. It's about demonstrating to Manitobans, who are hard-working people, that there's a government ready to come in and work very, very hard for them," Pallister said in an interview late last week.

"What do you want? Do you want a premier with no ambition?" he asked. "I want us to earn government, not be handed government by default."

At the start of the campaign, there was widespread speculation this election would be the last for Pallister and he'd step down some time within a second PC term. That changed last week, when he committed to serving out a second a term as premier.

Assuming Pallister doesn't have a change of heart, he is effectively pledging to serve as premier for at least seven years.

His predecessor as PC premier, Gary Filmon, served for 11, requiring former NDP leader Gary Doer to sit in Opposition to the Filmon government for more than a decade before Doer finally won the job himself in 1999.

Kinew claims party poised for majority

If Doer is the model for slow-and-steady NDP success, then current New Democrat Leader Wab Kinew doesn't have to win big on Tuesday night. 

He merely has to expand upon his party's 14-seat tally in the 2016 election and show the NDP is capable of wandering out of the political wilderness, at least eventually.

This is not, however, the way Kinew is talking right now. The NDP leader says he's campaigning to win this election, and claims his party has a shot in all 57 Manitoba seats.

"We're competitive in all of them. My role model politically is Frank McKenna, who won every single seat in one of the New Brunswick elections," Kinew said in an interview in August, referring to the Liberal Party's overwhelming 1987 victory in the Maritime province.

No recent poll suggests the Manitoba NDP is poised to win a majority, but it's entirely plausible the party could reclaim  Thompson and Keewatinook in northern Manitoba, along with several seats in Winnipeg.

Kinew won't say how many Winnipeg seats the NDP needs to win back for him to survive a party leadership review next year, let alone define a seat count that would constitute success or failure for the NDP in this election.

"When I become premier on Sept. 11, that'll definitely answer that question," he said.

Liberal leader candid about chances

Liberal Leader Dougald Lamont is more candid about his party's objectives. Instead of talking about moving into the premier's office, he says the Liberals would be satisfied with winning more seats.

"I think at one point we're thinking a minimum of eight, so taking us to 11 or 12 and possibly more," Lamont said in an interview in August.

That would amount to the best Liberal achievement in Manitoba since 1988. And while polls suggest it's unlikely, any gains made by Liberals may be enough to allow Lamont to survive a leadership challenge.

Beddome could say bye

Green Leader James Beddome is just as candid about the ambitions for his party, which has never won a Manitoba seat.

"Just getting seats in the legislature would be a breakthrough for our party," Beddome said in an interview in August. "I'd be very happy with four seats in in the legislature, we'd then have obviously official party status."

The Greens are expected to be competitive in at least one seat, Wolseley, where candidate Dave Nickarz finished second in 2016. Beddome himself has a tougher task, as he's up against Kinew in Fort Rouge.

Beddome said he's thought about ceding the Green Party leadership in the event Nickarz becomes the party's first and only Manitoba MLA.

"Certainly there's been discussions of that, but no decisions have been made. Let's win seats first and then we'll start having those discussions," he said. "As a leader, you've got to be thinking about successors and how the party is going to move on after you."

While Pallister has dumped cold water on the concept he would step down after the election, it should be noted he has pooh-poohed accurate predictions in the past.

• After cutting the PST, Brian Pallister has nothing left to do but call an election

This year on budget day, for example, Pallister dismissed the idea of an early election campaign — the one happening right now — as "the speculection."