Lots of budget tidbits known, but big questions remain about Manitoba spending plan

In advance of its first budget, Manitoba's New Democratic Party government has already signalled the provincial spending plan will include a major change to education tax rebates in 2025, plans to make prescription birth control free and new rebates for electric vehicle purchases.

These changes alone suggest Premier Wab Kinew's budget will have more new facets than former premier Brian Pallister's first budget did in 2016, which was released only six weeks after the Progressive Conservatives won the provincial election.

This NDP government has had nearly six months to amend the way the province spends money, providing more of a runway for Kinew and his finance minister, Adrien Sala.

"The question is in my mind is that to what extent have the NDP had a time to make the big changes that they want to make?" asked Chris Adams, a political studies professor at the University of Manitoba. 

"I think they will be making big changes on Tuesday."

Several of those changes have been revealed, given how much of the NDP budget has been shared with Manitobans prior to its release on Tuesday afternoon.

Last week, an NDP government spokesperson told CBC News the province is slated to scrap its existing package of education tax rebates in favour of a single $1,500 property tax credit for every home.

The spokesperson said the first Kinew-Sala budget will call for the elimination of both the 50 per cent provincial property tax rebate and $350 education tax credit in 2025.

In their place, every property subject to provincial property taxes would receive up to $1,500 off those taxes in 2025, the spokesperson said.

That change will effectively exempt the owners of less valuable homes from paying provincial property taxes and require the owners of more valuable properties to pay more education taxes.

The Canadian Press, citing an unnamed government source on Friday, said the province will generate more tax revenue through this change.

The Canadian Press also reported NDP government is slated to double the tax credit for fertility treatments, offer Manitobans free prescription birth control, provide people who buy electric vehicles a $4,000 rebate and provide $300 rebates for people who purchase security cameras for their home or business.

The NDP is also expected to follow through on a campaign promise to increase a tax credit to help renters as well, the Canadian Press reported.

Kinew also said last week that Manitoba will replace paper health cards and records with plastic health cards and digitized records.

There are some plans the NDP government has yet to reveal. One is confirmation of an extension of the gas-tax holiday that began on Jan. 1 and was initially intended to only last six months.

"That's costing Manitoba a lot of money, having that vacation from those taxes," Adams said. "The question will be to what extent will that be continued?"

Adams also noted the NDP have not yet signalled when they will reopen emergency rooms, as they promised during the election.

The government also has yet to indicate how precisely they will balance the budget, beyond a promise to bring the deficit down to zero this political term from the latest projection of nearly $2 billion for 2023-24.