Light snow tempers Manitoba flood fears

Light snowfall across most of Manitoba and Saskatchewan this winter suggests a major flood this spring is not a foregone conclusion.

A new report about river, lake and soil conditions across the Lake Winnipeg drainage basin contains a mix of good and bad news about the prospect of a spring flood.

On the plus side, the report says snowfall this winter has been below normal to well below normal in Saskatchewan, where most of the rivers flow east, as well as in Manitoba.

The report also says frost has not penetrated very deeply into the soil this winter, meaning there should be some capacity for the ground to absorb run-off from snowmelt this spring.

On the middling front, the moisture content of that snow — another factor in the development of a flood — ranges from very low in Saskatchewan to very high in southeastern Manitoba, the report says.

Rivers continue to run relatively high, it says, although levels have dropped since a record fall that saw the Red River Floodway put into operation.

• Unusual fall flood on Red River reaches its crest

On the downside, soil moisture remains very high across the basin. This reduces the capacity of the ground to absorb runoff.

The snowpack also is very high in the U.S. portion of the Red River Valley, where the U.S. National Weather Service is predicting a major flood this spring.

• Spring flood in U.S. portion of Red River Valley to be at least as bad as 2019 , forecasters say

Ultimately, the weather over the next few months will determine how bad flooding will be in Manitoba.

The first Manitoba flood forecast is due out at the end of the month.

In 2019, flood forecasters predicted a major deluge that turned out to be moderate, thanks to perfect weather conditions that slowed the spring melt.