Lake Winnipeg at lowest level for early May in 35 years, potentially slowing Hydro's revenue stream

The Lake Winnipeg watershed is experiencing drought conditions for the second straight year, further impairing Manitoba Hydro's ability to generate surplus power as well as revenue for the province.

The water level on Lake Winnipeg, which Manitoba Hydro uses as a reservoir, is close to a record low for this time of year, according to a statement from Manitoba Infrastructure's hydrologic forecast centre. The lake stood at 712.26 feet above sea level on Wednesday, which is 0.04 feet above the lowest level recorded for the lake on May 8 — 712.22 feet in 1989 — since the advent of Hydro regulation in the 1970s.

Two of the most significant inflows into Lake Winnipeg — the Winnipeg River and the Saskatchewan River — are flowing well below their average volumes, the hydrologic forecast centre said. 

As well, the Churchill River, whose flow is partly diverted into the Nelson River for the purposes of generating electricity downstream, is flowing at its lowest recorded volume above Leaf Rapids, the hydrologic forecast centre said.

Manitoba Hydro says the drought conditions won't result in any domestic power shortages, but could curtail the Crown corporation's ability to generate enough electricity to sell on the opportunity or spot market. 

WATCH | Lake Winnipeg at lowest spring level since 1989:

Water on Lake Winnipeg at lowest level for early May in 35 years

7 months ago

Duration 2:24

The Lake Winnipeg watershed is experiencing drought conditions for the second straight year, further impairing Manitoba Hydro's ability to generate surplus power as well as revenue for the province.

"Water inflows to our system, basin-wide, are among the lowest we've seen in 40 years for this time of year — similar to what we experienced in the 2021-22 drought," Hydro spokesperson Bruce Owen said in a statement.

"The energy stored in our reservoirs is at one of the lowest levels since Lake Winnipeg regulation began in the mid-'70s."

Owen said it is too soon to determine how much revenue Hydro will lose due to a reduced capacity to export power, let alone what impact the drought will have on the Crown corporation's overall finances.

In a third-quarter report published in February, Hydro expected to lose $190 million during the fiscal year that ended on March 31. That loss was mainly due to drought conditions over the past fall and winter. 

Heavy rains this spring could improve the financial picture during the 2024-25 fiscal year, said Manitoba Finance Minister Adrien Sala, who's also the minister responsible for Manitoba Hydro.

"Manitobans have no reason to be concerned," Sala said Thursday, insisting it is too early to fret over the fiscal impact of the current drought. "Manitoba receives most of the precipitation that drives Hydro between May and August."

The low water on Lake Winnipeg has other effects, both positive and negative.

On the plus side, beaches that are usually submerged or very small during the spring are above water early in the recreation season.

"For this time of year, the lake is very, very low," said Randy McMahon, who runs Aaron's on the Lake, a bed and breakfast in Ponemah, on the western shore of Lake Winnipeg's southern basin.

"You would never see all this rock in the springtime," he said, pointing at exposed patches of lake bottom beyond the beach in front of his property.

On the downside, the low water has created navigational hazards for boaters, as rock and sandbars that are usually submerged this time of year are closer to the surface, Hydro's Owen said in a statement.

Boat launches are also affected. Three of the boat slips at Balsam Harbour Marina, at the east side of Lake Winnipeg's south basin, are unusable due to low water, harbourmaster David Saindon said.

Despite the low water on Lake Winnipeg and low flows in several major Manitoba rivers, soil moisture levels are normal or above normal across most of southern and central regions of the province, the hydrologic forecast centre said.

According to Manitoba Agriculture maps, almost all of southern Manitoba received heavy rain over the past two weeks. This has delayed seeding for some agricultural producers.

Curtis McRae, who intends to grow 4,000 acres of wheat, canola and soybeans this season at his G&G Farms in the rural municipality of St. Andrews, started seeding this week.

"I have 30 days to get my crop in," he said in the midst of seeding wheat on a plot north of Oak Hammock Marsh on Thursday.

"It's tight enough I have to sweat a little. We need a lot of luck, a lot of this sunshine, which is flowing on me right now — I really like that."