Win, place & show: Something at stake for 3 largest Manitoba parties in Kirkfield Park byelection

Manitoba's three largest political parties all have something at stake as voters in Kirkfield Park choose a new MLA.

Up to 15,237 people in the western Winnipeg constituency are eligible to vote Tuesday in a byelection to replace Scott Fielding, the Progressive Conservative MLA and cabinet minister who resigned in June.

When advance polls closed on Saturday, 2,231 Kirkfield Park residents — about 13 per cent of the constituency — had already cast a ballot, according to Elections Manitoba.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, said there appears to be a genuine three-way race underway in Kirkfield Park.

The PCs won the seat in the past two provincial elections, the NDP won it twice before that that and the stand-alone nature of this byelection allows the Liberals to concentrate all their resources in one constituency.

"It's not just a typical two-way race that we see in Manitoba," Adams said in an interview.

A win tonight by the governing Progressive Conservatives would provide some hope for a party that polls suggest is badly trailing the NDP in Winnipeg going into a general election year, Adams said.

"If they don't hold the seat, it speaks volumes about where the PCs are going in the next election," Adams said.

Royce Koop, another U of M political studies professor, agreed an NDP victory in a byelection would be a boon for a left-of-centre party that has not held this seat since 2016.

"If the NDP wins. It just looks like you have another step on Wab Kinew's march into the premier's office," Koop said in an interview.

At the same time, anything less than a second-place finish for the NDP would call that winning narrative into question, especially after the New Democrats finished a distant third in the Fort Whyte byelection in March, Adams said.

For the Liberals, who came within a whisker of winning in Fort Whyte, even finishing second could be seen as a victory, he suggested.

"The NDP does not want to go into a provincial election with the Liberals looking like the the alternative for middle-class urban swing voters," Adams said.

All this jockeying, however, has little bearing on what will actually happen in the 2023 election, Koop said.

If the Liberals win the byelection, the party will still have the shallowest pool of resources to draw upon among all three parties next year. It won't be able to be focus on all 57 Manitoba constituencies the way it's been focused on Kirkfield Park in recent weeks, he said.

An NDP victory, meanwhile, would provide the party with "bragging rights" for weeks, he added, but won't radically alter electoral plans for 2023, Koop said.

A PC victory would have the largest impact on Manitoba politics for years to come, he suggested, because the party's relatively high-profile candidate, Kevin Klein, could be a future Tory leadership candidate, he said.

"I think that has an impact on conservative politics in this province in the medium term," Koop said. "We wouldn't get that if he isn't elected."

In an interview Monday, Klein rejected the idea that anything is at stake Tuesday other than the byelection choice facing the 87 per cent of Kirkfield Park voters who have yet to cast a ballot.

"I'm not thinking that far ahead, to be honest," Klein said in response to questions about what could happen in 2023.

At the same time, the former Winnipeg mayoral candidate said he would not mind knocking on doors for the third time in 13 months. 

"You know, I could use the steps," Klein quipped.

Logan Oxenham, the NDP candidate in the byelection, is also making a serious play for the seat. NDP leader Kinew has bolstered Oxenham's campaign by door knocking in Kirkfield Park and making calls on the candidate's behalf.

"It's great to see he's invested in Kirkfield Park as much as I am," Oxenham said in an interview.

Rhonda Nichol, the Liberal candidate, said she knows how important the byelection is to her party.

"Right now, we only have three seats in the house, which doesn't give us much of a voice," she said. "Right now it's literally two parties running the house, and that's not good."

Green Party candidate Dennis Bayomi, meanwhile, said if his party doesn't prevail Tuesday it will try to be competitive next year.

"When we've been going to doors, we've been getting a lot of people saying, 'Hey, Green Party, we're glad to see you here,'" he said.

Polls open Tuesday in Kirkfield Park at 8 a.m. and close at 8 p.m.