Federal election 2015: Manitoba analysts weigh in on expected early call

A federal election call that's expected to happen sometime this weekend will mean voters across Canada, including those in Manitoba, will see the longest campaign in decades, analysts in Winnipeg say.

CBC News has learned that Prime Minister Stephen Harper will go to Rideau Hall on Sunday or Monday to ask Gov. Gen. David Johnston to dissolve Parliament, triggering an election.

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"There's been a lot of speculation that the prime minister would call an election early," Curtis Brown of Probe Research, a public opinion research firm, told Trevor Dineen of CBC's Up to Speed program on Wednesday afternoon.

"The election is fixed for October and by doing this, this would basically lengthen the campaign to the longest that we've seen certainly in modern times."

The election is generally considered to be set for Oct. 19, 2015, under the Conservatives' fixed election law.

Dropping the writ more than 11 weeks before voting day would make it the longest campaign in modern history. The previous longest campaign was a 74-day one in 1926.

"It's going to be well over 70 days; the usual time for an election at the minimum is 36 or 37 days," said Christopher Adams, a Manitoba political analyst and author.

"This really signifies a very, very long election period in which candidates can campaign, can spend money on their campaigns, the parties can campaign, so it really means a much longer prolonged period for us leading up to an election."

Conservatives could have advantage

An early campaign could give Harper and the incumbent Conservatives an advantage over the other political parties, Brown said.

• Longer federal election campaign would cost taxpayers millions more

"The Conservatives have a significant financial advantage over the other parties," he said.

"Basically they would be able to spend a lot more money on advertising and those sorts of things during the summer months, and even into September, whereas the other parties wouldn't be able to do that."

Until last year, the spending limits were set no matter the length of a campaign, the minimum amount of time for which is 37 days (with voting day falling on the 37th day).

But the Conservatives' Fair Elections Act provided for the parties' $25-million limits to be increased if the campaign is longer than 37 days: for each additional day the limit is increased by 1/37th, or an extra $675,000.

Candidates get an additional $2,700 a day to add to their usual limit of approximately $100,000.