Farmers in southern Manitoba anxious, bracing for U.S. tariffs
$1.2B in agricultural products annually exported from Manitoba to U.S.: Stats Can
Manitoba is one of Canada's biggest hog producers with millions being annually shipped to, and processed in, the U.S. So the threat of 25-per-cent tariffs being levied on Canadian goods, including the agriculture sector, is worrisome for farmers in southern Manitoba.
"We obviously don't want it. Nobody really wants this or needs it," said John Nickel, who has nearly 6,000 sows — and piglets being born daily — at his two hog farms near Lowe Farm and Tolstoi.
The hogs are sold to a farm in Minnesota, with Nickel sending a truck load there every week.
He's not sure what the full extent of tariffs would do to his production but says it would be challenging to find an alternative market to sell the livestock.
Nickel said he could possibly hold off exports for one to three weeks, but sooner or later the pigs would have to move to the next phase of production.
"It would be really difficult for Canada to absorb just the production from our farm — never mind that we are far from the only farm [doing this]," Nickel said.
Canada's total exports to the U.S. from all industries in 2023 exceeded $594 billion. Tariffs of 25 per cent applied across the board would increase the cost of those exports by $148.5 billion, according to Statistics Canada.
Nickel doesn't want to think about what could happen if U.S. President Donald Trump goes ahead and imposes the tariffs, or what would happen if his American customers couldn't afford to buy from him anymore.
"We would we would have to cut back our production or worst case scenario, shut down the farm," Nickel said.
Agriculture and agri-food account for seven per cent of Canada's GDP, with the agriculture industry home to one in nine jobs and employing 2.3 million people in Canada, according to the Canadian Federation of Agriculture.
Sixty per cent of Canadian agriculture exports go to the U.S., which amounts to about $1.2 billion from Manitoba.
Like Nickel, the thought of tariffs is on the mind of Colin Penner, a farmer near Elm Creek who s preparing to seed wheat, canola, soybean and oats crops — all of which are sold to the U.S.
Farming is stressful enough, dealing with uncertain weather and the rising cost of equipment. Worrying about geopolitics compounds anxiety, he said.
"I'd rather just be in the tractor, put seed in the ground, worry about weather really," Penner said.
Even before the threat of tariffs arose, Penner started preparing for Trump's second presidential term.
"We said we better get our fertilizer home because something might go silly. We've [also] locked in interest rates for the next four years."
Fletcher Baragar, an associate professor at the University of Manitoba's economics department, wonders how much tolerance Americans will have for rising prices, should tariffs come into effect.
"Those prices are going to go up. Now that the big question is, how's that going to impact on the shelves in U.S. groceries?"
Even without retaliatory tariffs, food prices could rise across the country for Canadian goods processed in the U.S. before being brought back to be sold in Canada.
Baragar says agriculture producers like Nickel and Penner could have an excess of supply, thus driving down the sale price of their products if a trade war gets drawn out.
"It can't be good for for Canadian farmers under that circumstance," Baragar said.
Penner is trying to not look too far down the road and think about what-ifs, but the potential of being unable to sell his crops to the U.S. could spell disaster.
"If the price drops, it would be catastrophic for us. We've got our budgets in place and we've sort of figured things out on how we can make it work," Penner said.
"But as an exporter, it wouldn't be a great thing for the Canadian economy. It wouldn't be great for Manitoba. It wouldn't be great for any farm."
"I'm nervous," he said. "I'm definitely very nervous."
WATCH / Worrisome Manitoba farmers prepare for tariffs:
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With files from Karen Pauls, Cameron MacIntosh and The Canadian Press