Manitoba could face 1,000 COVID-19 cases per day in new year due to Omicron: Roussin
Province has so far recorded 6 cases of highly transmissible variant
Manitoba could see 1,000 new COVID-19 cases per day early in the new year as the highly transmissible Omicron variant begins to take hold, Chief Provincial Public Health Officer Dr. Brent Roussin says.
"Once we see this spreading in the community, we are weeks away from it being our dominant strain. We need to act now to decrease the impact of this very concerning variant," he said at a news conference on Wednesday.
Roussin pleaded for Manitobans to get vaccinations and booster doses "before what we know is going to be a large amount of gatherings during our holiday season, before we have widespread community transmission of Omicron, which we also know is on its way here."
He urged people to rethink their holiday plans for large gatherings, especially those at higher risk — anyone older than 60 or with underlying medical conditions.
"You need to be very, very careful about your plans to gather," he said.
"We need to decrease our personal contacts. If you have higher risk people at those gatherings, you're putting people you care about at risk."
Roussin presented data that shows Omicron's reproduction number as being four times that of Delta, which is currently the dominant strain in Manitoba.
Based on how Omicron has run rampant in other places, it doubles every three days, Roussin said. For Delta, the doubling rate is 34 days.
The province has so far recorded six Omicron cases. Of those, two people were fully immunized and four were not.
"We don't have many cases here, so we don't have data that we can rely on. What we are doing here is plotting out what would Manitoba look like if we followed the same pattern that we've seen in other jurisdictions," Roussin said.
"And there's no real reason to think we wouldn't."
That rapid case rise will result in increased hospitalizations and intensive care patients, though the severity of illness from Omicron is still being determined.
WATCH | Dr. Reimer explains why vaccines can help against Omicron:
"With transmission like this, we cannot rely on it not being severe enough to cause us harm," Roussin said.
"[Once] it's introduced here in Manitoba, we can expect to look like other jurisdictions in the very near future."
Dr. Joss Reimer, Manitoba's vaccine implementation task force medical lead, implored people to do whatever is in their power to protect the health-care system and the people being served by it.
"The modelling that was shared by Dr. Roussin today is concerning. I hope that sharing this information will result in immediate action on the part of Manitobans who need to get their first, second or third doses," she said.
Early data about Omicron suggests that people who have had a COVID-19 infection and built up their natural immunity may not be as protected against the new variant as they are against other variants, Reimer said.
"Omicron also has some features that scientists are concerned may make the vaccines less effective, but what we know to be true is that the vaccines still help to protect you, especially against severe outcomes," she said.
When asked whether he intends to tighten the health measures in the province, Roussin said there are already significant restrictions in place now.
Options exist to increase those if necessary, but he prefers at this point to press the messaging about the Omicron concern and vaccines.
Roussin was asked why he'd rely on people to do the right thing now, when that has been the messaging for two years and many Manitobans still aren't heeding it.
WATCH | Full news conference on COVID-19 | Dec. 15, 2021:
"We've seen some Manitobans not following it, but I think the majority of Manitobans have done their part," he said. "So we're putting that plea out to Manitobans to get that third dose if you're eligible.
"Right now we need to start considering those holiday plans, knowing that restrictions could be coming."
Asked if it is time to rethink having crowds at NHL games in Winnipeg or allowing other big events, Roussin said "we are looking at those things right now.
"Again, vaccines remain our biggest chance of continuing to do those things."
So far, there have been no discussions about moving to remote learning for a few weeks after Christmas, like last year, Roussin said.
"We always want those schools to be the first thing to open, last thing to close. We know how important that is for various aspects of health," he said.
"So right now, we don't have any specific plans, but again, we will have to see what our epidemiology looks like."
Reporters posed the question later in the day to Premier Heather Stefanson about tighter restrictions in the province and whether that is something she would order.
"We take the advice of our chief provincial public health officer. We have throughout the pandemic and will continue to do so," she said.
"If there are further restrictions that are needed, we'll take his advice on that."
She said she agrees with Roussin and Reimer that "it's absolutely imperative" to encourage people to get their vaccinations.
Dr. Lisa Bryski, a retired emergency physician who worked during the first year of the pandemic in the province's vaccine clinics, decried the lack of a response to questions about the possible need for stricter measures and scoffed at the photo op afterwards of Health Minister Audrey Gordon getting her booster shot.
"We are under duress and we are about to enter a zone of potential exponential rise. We need a full-pronged, multi-layered [approach] … to keep ourselves in a better position of safety against COVID," she said.
"Just focusing on that one thing — a needle in the health minister's arm — although it is one thing in the right direction, it ignores all the rest."
As the federal government moves to discourage non-essential travel, the Manitoba government is standing pat.
"It's soft-pedalling everything. It hasn't shown any lessons learned from the previous three waves," Bryski said. "Even as they call out to the federal government for help, they're not willing to help ourselves.
"Right now, they left everyone rudderless in a boat where they say there's an iceberg coming."
The province has asked the federal government for 15 to 30 intensive care unit nurses for approximately six weeks and is still awaiting response. Gordon said on Wednesday those discussions are ongoing but could not say when help, if any, might come.
Bryski said each COVID wave has chipped away at the health system's resources and chastised the province for not doing more to stop the spread of the virus through stronger measures.
"Why would you not firm up what you can do and be very adamant about that while you try to get those resources that we rely on as backup, as a last resource?" she said.
Greater availability of rapid tests
Bryski also said she wants to see rapid COVID tests available and education on how to use them. That's something Stefanson spoke about on Tuesday, saying she intends to advocate for them to be made more publicly available.
"If we can get those rapid tests and know and understand that people are infected with COVID … they can begin their isolation or whatever public health says they should be taking in terms of action," she said at the time.
Up until that, provincial officials have said repeatedly said rapid tests can offer a false sense of security.
As of November, the province had distributed about 1.5 million of its 2.7 million rapid tests, prioritizing schools and businesses. Other provinces have made the tests freely available at locations like libraries, liquor stores and gas stations.
During Wednesday's news conference, Roussin was asked about freeing up those rapid tests and said there more will come on that soon.
"We are looking at how we can disseminate rapid tests the most efficient and most effective ways possible," he said.
"We are going to utilize those rapid tests. Again, it's one more thing in the toolbox. It's not going to be the solution to everything, but we are going to use that tool, and we'll have more to say on that."
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With files from Ian Froese