Americans in Winnipeg take stand against Donald Trump in midterms

Some Americans who live in Winnipeg are voting Democrat in the U.S. midterm elections, in part to show their displeasure with Donald Trump's presidency.

For Stuart Williams, a dual citizen originally from Portland, Ore., who has lived in Canada since 1993, watching Trump's leadership has been a little like living a bad dream.

"It's hard to believe the things he's saying, the laws that he's suggesting; many of them are kind of shocking. [It's] not what I would have expected, having grown up in the United States," he said.

Americans are voting Tuesday for members of Congress, which includes both the lower chamber, or House of Representatives, and the upper chamber, the Senate. 

For Williams, 54, who considers himself a Democrat-leaning centrist, the midterm election comes down to checking Trump's power.

"As long as we've got Republicans — one party — controlling both the office of the president and the House and the Senate, it's just hard to have political compromise," he said.

"I think there's a fair chance the House of Representatives will go Democrat.… I hope it would force the two houses to co-operate."

Democrats fight for North Dakota 

Emily Glover's vote in North Dakota is a personal one.

Glover, 30, has family and friends who are people of colour and LGBTQ and she says they feel threatened by Trump's rhetoric and policies.

"The things he said have really empowered or brought forth the worst in a lot of people," she said.

Glover, a lifelong Democrat, moved to Winnipeg seven years ago to be with her Canadian husband. Her home state, North Dakota, is a key focus for Democrats, who are trying to hold on to Heidi Heitkamp's Senate seat.

Heitkamp is trailing in the polls behind Kevin Cramer, a Republican.

But North Dakota voters are notoriously unpredictable, said Mark Jendrysik, professor of political science and public administration at the University of North Dakota. Heitkamp remains well-liked by the electorate, he said.

The state only has one representative in the House and Jendrysik said voters will likely support the Republican running, Kelly Armstrong, over Democrat Mac Schneider. 

"That race really hasn't been polled but one would presume the Republican candidate has the advantage. He's raised substantially more money," said Jendrysik.

If voters currently living in North Dakota see the 2018 midterms as a referendum on Trump, then Republicans may have a leg up. The president remains popular in the state that butts up against the southern borders of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Jendrysik said.

"Many conservatives in North Dakota ignore, I think, his more extreme statements. They see them as ways to bait the Democrats," he said.

While tariffs and a trade war could be a threat to the state's soybean farmers, the political ramifications appear to be minimal so far.

"There's only about 6,000 soybean farmers in the state and the real effect of Trump's tariffs, the real effect of Chinese retaliation, has not yet been seen," said Jendrysik.

Conservative farmers are willing to endure some pain for the promise of gains down the road, he said.

Impact of voters abroad

While few Americans abroad tend to vote in U.S. elections, the voting block shouldn't be written off, Jendrysik said.

There are about 2.6 million Americans who live outside the country but can still vote, although only about four per cent end up casting ballots, according to a 2015 study by the Federal Voting Assistance Program based on the 2014 U.S. election. In 2016, a presidential election year, the organization believes seven per cent of those people voted.

The vast majority of eligible voters — about 622,000 — live in Canada, the program estimated in 2016.

"Every vote does matter," said Jendrysik.

"We've had some very close elections on statewide levels, on district levels for the House of Representatives, so I think mobilizing every single vote is something both parties are trying to do more of, not to let little groups of voters be forgotten."

Both Williams and Glover believe Trump may turn out to be a big motivator to get expats to vote Democrat in the 2018 midterms.