Stage 2 by 2032? Why Region of Waterloo says LRT into Cambridge is years away

Construction of Phase 2 of the LRT to Cambridge is still years away, but regional staff say the next major steps for the project are to secure funding and complete a business case.

Regional council approved the route and station locations in 2019, and in 2020 approved the function design for the project, according to Matthew O'Neill, Region of Waterloo's manager of rapid transit coordination.

The environmental assessment was also completed in 2021. 

"Now, having completed the [environmental assessment] we're looking ahead to doing the business case and updating the cost estimates and preparing for the funding requests of the provincial and federal government in 2023," O'Neill said.

Next steps

Other steps also include the re-evaluation of the Bruce Street ION terminal after deficiencies were found with that location.

"We have learned a few things about running and operating a system and the design has developed further ... and some of the benefits of the south terminus have not really panned out as we have envisioned," he said.

"We now see some potential, good ideas for the Ainslie Street site that might be worth taking a look at."

That work is expected to wrap up early to mid 2023, O'Neill said. By late 2023, it's expected regional staff will have completed a business case for the project that will be presented to council and later be presented to the provincial and federal governments.

Shaping Waterloo region's growth  

O'Neill said staff are using the region's official plan, which looks ahead at the region's growth by 2051, to help craft the project's business case. 

"That's going to produce 2051 land use forecast, so population and employment, that feeds into the travel model, which gives us our future ridership estimates," he said.

As the region's population is expected to reach 923,000 people by 2051, Brian Doucet, an associate professor in the School of Planning at the University of Waterloo, said having the LRT in Cambridge will help shape the region's future growth.

The region is also expected to strengthen its workforce by 470,000 jobs in 2051. 

"Building higher order transit to link key areas in midsize, large, rapidly growing areas is really important," Doucet, who is also the Canada Research Chair in Urban Change and Social Inclusion, told CBC K-W.

"Thinking about growing in a more compact way, in a way where people have transportation choices, in a way that having higher order transit system anchors the way [a region] grows and develops."

Doucet adds it's also important to make sure the new system is accessible to everyone by ensuring future development along the line is inclusive of affordable housing and other agencies that benefit the community.

"Higher order transit is good and important, but we also have to think about a housing strategy and think about who benefits and who is able to access those spaces," he said.

Construction no earlier than 2028

When construction of phase 2 would start depends on securing funding, getting the property acquisition process started, as well as finalizing the procurement of the project, O'Neill said.

He said construction of phase 2 would start no earlier than 2028 and the region would also need to purchase 14 additional trains.

Right now, O'Neill said staff are working on updating the overall costs estimates of the project, which include property costs, the cost of designing and building phase 2, as well as operation and maintenance costs.

On the Engage Waterloo website, it says estimated start of service for the Cambridge LRT could be as early as 2032.  

Listen to the full interview with Matthew O'Neill below: