Flood watch, special weather statement issued with mild temperatures and rain on the way

A flood watch has been issued for the entire Grand River watershed this week because of warmer temperatures, rain and melting snow.

As well, Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement warning of significant rainfall and mild temperatures for Waterloo region, Guelph and southern Wellington County.

Rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 millimetres are expected starting Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

"This rainfall, combined with melting snow and the limited ability of the frozen ground to absorb the rain may lead to localized flooding in low lying areas and water pooling on roads," the statement said. 

The rain could come with thunderstorms. The temperature is expected to hit a high of 8 C on Wednesday. 

The flood watch was issued by the Grand River Conservation Authority (GRCA) at 12 p.m. on Monday.

"A low-pressure system moving across the central United States is expected to bring warmer temperatures and precipitation to the watershed tomorrow and Wednesday," the watch said.

Warmer temperatures are expected in the southern part of the watershed, from Brantford to Lake Erie, while cooler temperatures are expected in the north in areas like Orangeville.

"The river system is largely ice covered and there is a heavy snowpack across most of the watershed. The warm conditions and rain will generate runoff and will likely be sufficient to cause the river ice cover to break up and start moving, which raises the risk of ice jam formation and associated flood potential," the GRCA said.

The GRCA warned people who live in low-lying areas or parts of the watershed prone to flooding to prepare for the potential of rising waters and reminded them to sign up for alerts from their municipalities.

The flood watch remains in effect until 12 p.m. on Thursday.

Stay off ice: OPP

West Region Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) Sgt. Ed Sanchuk reminded people to stay off ice now that the temperatures are warming up.

"Put your safety as a priority if you happen to venture out. We don't want anyone near any type of river, streams or creeks. Obviously they're very unpredictable and if you're ice skating on ponds, rivers or streams, they're going to be extremely unstable with the warm weather conditions," Sanchuk said in a video posted to X, formerly Twitter.

"Do not venture out into the water or near the embankments. They become extremely slippery. You could fall in and again, depending on the kind of that water, depending on how cold that water is, you're going to be doing a self rescue."

The GRCA said children and pets should also be kept away from rivers, streams and lakes.

"Most waterbodies throughout the Grand River watershed are not monitored for the purpose of winter recreation, and the public is reminded to stay off of unmonitored water bodies due to unsafe conditions," the GRCA said.

High risk of flooding this spring

The flood watch comes after the GRCA issued a flood outlook on Friday saying there's a high risk of flooding this spring.

The GRCA says natural dams created by ice jams also increase the flood risk.

"While ice conditions this year are less significant than they were in 2018 and 2019, much of the river system is ice covered and the potential for ice jams to form exists," the GRCA's statement said.

"This further increases the risk of flooding in areas prone to ice jams. Lake Erie is mostly ice covered, increasing the risk of ice jam related flooding at the mouth of the Grand River."